HONG KONG (CHINA DAILY (ASIA)/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - I would prefer to err on the side of caution, so I would rather say it now than later: We might soon be, if not already, experiencing an "economic ice age" in Hong Kong as the city continues to be battered by one disaster after another.

First, we had the seven-month-long social unrest that stemmed from anti-government protests since June, triggered by the now-withdrawn extradition bill.

Seven months later, in January, the virulent Covid-19 began to hit us, now with the potential of becoming a global pandemic.

As of Thursday (Mar 5), there had been some 93,000 cases recorded and more than 3,200 deaths worldwide, of which about 3,000 deaths occurred on the Chinese mainland where there were at least 80,560 cases. Hong Kong had over 100 cases and two deaths.

The economic impact of the coronavirus is not to be underestimated, and even the average Hong Kong resident is feeling the economic sting of the outbreak, which appears to be showing few signs of abating anytime soon.

Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po has already warned that the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak could be more severe than that of SARS in 2003.

He recently wrote in his official blog that he expected more Hong Kong residents to lose their jobs and that the financial impact on the city appears far worse than in 2003 during Sars because we have become heavily reliant on tourism and retailing.

He also cited latest figures showing that mainland visitors accounted for 78 per cent of total arrivals, compared with 41 percent from 2002, before Sars hit.

Inbound tourism is one of the major pillars of the city's economy. In 2017, it contributed about 4 per cent of our GDP and directly employed around 260,000 people, accounting for about 7 per cent of total employment.

In 2018, total visitor arrivals jumped by 11.4 per cent over 2017 to 65.15 million.

The most obvious barometer is the number of vacant taxis that can be seen around town even in busy financial districts like Central and Admiralty.

In the old days, it was difficult to hail a taxi during business hours in these areas. Nowadays, long lines of vacant taxis are seen teeming the streets everywhere in business and shopping districts alike.

I have talked to a few taxi drivers who told me that many drivers have decided not to work during this period, when the majority of Hong Kong residents are shunning social gatherings, and overseas visitors are staying away.

In Hong Kong, most taxis are operated by renter-drivers who typically pay over HK$400 ($71.35) for a shift of about 12 hours. And because of the dwindling number of passengers, there is no point renting a cab and sometimes making as little as HK$100 to HK$200 a day.

Another effective barometer is the dining scene. Every eatery, from the popular local Hong Kong tea restaurants, or cha chaan tengs, to the upmarket hotel restaurants, is practically deserted.

Even the iconic Jumbo Kingdom floating restaurant in Aberdeen has closed its doors until further notice.

Mr Chan has further warned that the retail and catering sectors have been hardest-hit in the last few months, before Covid-19 broke out.

Retail sales recorded their biggest-ever dip of 24 per cent year-on-year in the last quarter, while total revenue for the catering sector shed 6 percent in a first-ever drop of this size since 2003.

Hotels are also empty, with most Hong Kong hotels recording single-digit occupancy rates, as visitor arrivals have dropped drastically with the number plunging to a daily average of 3,000 in mid-February, compared with 200,000 in the same month last year.

Even during the peak of the Sars outbreak in May 2003, 10,000 people were visiting the city on average each day, and hotel room occupancy remained in double digits.

Even Ocean Park and Hong Kong Disneyland made the decision to close their doors in late-January.

One of the direct beneficiaries of inbound tourism is the retail sector.

In addition to branded goods, visitors, particularly those from the mainland, also bought jewellery, smartphones, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals.

At its peak, visitors accounted for 30 to 50 percent of total retail sales in Hong Kong. The retail sector in turn feeds the hundreds of thousands of employees working in the trading, wholesale, logistics, real estate and the construction sectors.

We all know there are two main culprits behind the downfall of tourism: the anti-government protests and now the Covid-19 outbreak.

Covid-19, of course, will pass. But will our inbound tourism and the general economy be able to resurrect itself to its former glory?

Large parts of our economy are supported by mainland visitors. Last year, 46 million mainland tourists came to Hong Kong. And in 2018, the city attracted a record 65.1 million visitors, with nearly 4 out of 5 coming from the mainland.

From the way it looks now, there is little hope of enticing mainland visitors to Hong Kong, as the opposition has been advocating the cutting-off of all ties, including economic ones, with the rest of China.

They do not hide their emotions against mainlanders either, making the most important customers in Hong Kong feel unwelcome.

The opposition has been advocating this destructive attitude of laam chau, which means literally "embrace and be fried" or "to die together". To put it in more-familiar terms, their way of thinking is this: If we're going down, you're coming down with us.

From the way it looks now, there is little hope of resuscitating Hong Kong's economy in the short and medium term.

Ultimately, this begs the question: Can we still pull ourselves back from the point of no return?

When other economies come out of recession when Covid-19 is finally gone, will Hong Kong be left out in the cold, continuing to suffer from the "economic ice age", because the opposition remains antagonistic to the mainland?

The author is president of Wisdom Hong Kong, a think tank. China Daily (Asia) is a member of The Straits Times media partner Asia News Network, an alliance of 24 news media organisations.