Explainer: Will Thailand’s election deliver a stable government?

BANGKOK – Thailand’s ruling

Bhumjaithai Party scored a decisive victory

at last weekend’s general election, routing progressive and populist parties to put leader Anutin Charnvirakul in the running to become the first prime minister voted back to office in 20 years.

How did the election play out?

Bhumjaithai grabbed and retained a sizeable lead in early vote counting, despite opinion polls that favoured the liberal People’s Party, whose leaders, along with those of the Pheu Thai Party, had conceded early.

It expanded in the south and grabbed seats in the vote-rich north-east held for nearly two decades by the billionaire Shinawatra family’s once-dominant Pheu Thai.

Bhumjaithai had 193 of 500 parliamentary seats from nearly 95 per cent of polling stations, according to Reuters’ calculations based on election commission data, well over its tallies of 51 and 71 in the 2019 and 2023 elections, respectively. The People’s Party was a distant second with 118 seats, and Pheu Thai had 74, in its worst electoral performance.

How easily can Anutin form a coalition?

Although Bhumjaithai lacks an outright majority, its 193 seats give Mr Anutin plenty of bargaining power. Clearing away one obstacle, the People’s Party on Feb 8 said it would not form a competing alliance.

Apart from the big three parties, about a dozen smaller ones are set to win 115 seats, from Kla Tham, with 58, to Palang Pracharath, with five. As part of Mr Anutin’s minority government, those two alone would yield him a slender majority.

A Pheu Thai-Bhumjaithai alliance is possible, even though Mr Anutin manoeuvred against it after abandoning the coalition of the former ruling party in 2025 to become prime minister following a court’s sacking of predecessor Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

With his party on the rise and his credentials as an astute but wily dealmaker wielding clout among conservatives and royalists, Mr Anutin is set to draw defectors and many smaller parties.

Is political stability likely under Anutin?

The size of Bhumjaithai’s win consolidates power to enable better governance if Mr Anutin can manage Thailand’s stuttering economy and balance the interests of big business groups and powerful institutions.

He would probably be backed by Thailand’s influential establishment and military, the key protagonists in a lengthy power struggle that thwarted two progressive forerunners of the People’s Party and toppled in coups and court rulings six populist prime ministers from, or backed by, the Shinawatras.

How did Anutin win?

Mr Anutin’s gamble on dissolving Parliament amid a fierce conflict with Cambodia seems to have paid off as he rode a wave of months-long nationalism and campaigned heavily on defending national sovereignty while portraying rivals as unpatriotic.

Though he was prime minister for fewer than 100 days, his recruitment of technocrats and poaching of respected politicians from other parties let him project his party as a capable steward of the economy, against an untested People’s Party and a Pheu Thai that had failed to deliver.

When can a government be formed?

Parliament must gather to elect a Speaker and choose the new prime minister 15 days after the result is certified by the election commission, which has 60 days to do so.

Any party with more than 25 seats can nominate a prime ministerial candidate for the vote in Parliament, but such a contestant would have to gain the support of more than half of the 500 lawmakers before forming a Cabinet.

If the vote is unsuccessful, the House must convene again and repeat the procedure until a prime minister is chosen. REUTERS