Why China might react badly to any call between Trump and Taiwan’s president

US President Donald Trump said on May 20 he would speak with Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, an unprecedented move for an American leader that could roil US relations with China and maybe prompt more Chinese war games around the island.

It was the second time in a week Mr Trump had said he intended to speak to Dr Lai, dispelling initial speculation that his first mention of it after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14 was a verbal slip.

Taiwan said it would be happy for Dr Lai and Mr Trump to speak, though no details on when this might happen have been confirmed by either Washington or Taipei.

China’s foreign ministry, referring to the possibility of a Trump-Lai call, said on May 21 the US should “handle the Taiwan issue with extreme caution and stop sending wrong signals to the separatist forces of Taiwan independence”.

Here is why such a call could infuriate Beijing.

What is China’s position on Taiwan?

China calls Taiwan its single most important and sensitive issue as it concerns Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity not to be questioned or interfered with by outsiders.

Beijing views Taiwan as an unresolved matter from the Chinese civil war, which saw the defeated Republic of China government flee to the island in 1949 after losing to Mao Zedong’s communists, who founded the People’s Republic.

Beijing calls Taiwan a Chinese province with no right to claim to be a country and has never renounced the use of force to bring it under its control, though says it would prefer “peaceful reunification”.

China says Taiwan is its “core of core interests” and a red line that cannot be crossed, routinely criticising any high-level engagements between foreign leaders and Taipei as an interference in China’s internal affairs.

Neither the Chinese nor Taiwanese governments officially recognise the other and China refuses to refer to Dr Lai as “president”.

How has China reacted to past US engagement with Taiwan?

China launched major war games around Taiwan in 2022 shortly after the Taipei visit of then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and has held several other rounds of war games also in reaction to US engagements with Taiwan.

China’s last major war games near the island were in late December. Earlier that month, the Trump administration approved a US$11 billion (S$14 billion) arms sales package to Taiwan, its largest ever.

What is Taiwan’s position?

Taiwan is a thriving democracy whose government strongly rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims. Taiwan says it is an independent country called the Republic of China, which remains the island’s formal name, and has a right to engage with the rest of the world and choose its own leaders.

Dr Lai has repeatedly offered talks with China, but been rebuffed. Beijing calls him a “separatist”.

What is the US view?

The US severed official ties with Taipei in favour of Beijing in 1979 but is bound by the Taiwan Relations Act to provide the island with the means to defend itself. The US officially takes no position on Taiwan’s sovereignty under Washington’s One China policy.

In 2022, the State Department also added wording on the Six Assurances, referring to six Reagan-era security assurances given to Taiwan, which the United States declassified in 2020.

Among the assurances made in 1982, but never previously formally made public, are statements that the US has not set a date for ending arms sales to Taiwan, nor agreed to prior consultation with Beijing on such sales, or to revise the Taiwan Relations Act that underpins US policy towards the island.

China has repeatedly demanded that the US end arms sales to Taiwan.

What happened the last time Trump engaged directly with Taiwan?

In late 2016, then president-elect Donald Trump held a 10-minute call with then President Tsai Ing-wen. China reacted relatively mildly, issuing a diplomatic complaint and blaming Taiwan for engaging in a “petty action”. REUTERS