Why Taiwan’s absence in Trump-Xi talks was a welcome relief

TAIPEI – Taipei heaved a cautious sigh of relief as US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping – contrary to expectations – steered clear of talking about Taiwan during their Oct 30 meeting in South Korea.

“We have been closely following the summit, and we welcome anything that helps ensure the status quo of regional security and stability,” Taiwan’s Presidential Office spokeswoman Karen Kuo told a news conference on Oct 30.

“Taiwan will continue to maintain close contact with the US, and communication between the two sides has been smooth,” she added. 

For days leading up to the summit – the two leaders’ first face-to-face meeting since 2019 – there had been concern that Mr Trump, who is known for his transactional foreign policy, might

“sell out” the self-ruled island

in his push for a better trade deal with Beijing. 

Some observers, including several unnamed White House officials, were reportedly worried that their President could walk away from longstanding US policy on Taiwan and openly express opposition to the island’s independence.

Taipei sees Washington as its most important security backer against Beijing, which claims the island as its territory and, in recent years, has ratcheted up military, diplomatic and economic pressure on it.

Washington is obliged under the Taiwan Relations Act, passed by the US Congress in 1979, to provide the island with the arms it needs to defend itself.

But in the end, “Taiwan never came up”, Mr Trump said when asked by reporters on Air Force One after he departed Busan, where he met President Xi for about 100 minutes on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.

In contrast to past practices, the Chinese readout after the meeting also made no mention of Taiwan, not even to repeat Beijing’s standard talking points on Taiwan being “the core of China’s core interests”.

Analysts from both sides of the strait suggested some reasons for the omission to The Straits Times.

“Beijing wouldn’t want the Taiwan issue to be mentioned in the same breath with tariffs and export controls, as if it were a bargaining chip,” Professor Zheng Anguang of Nanjing University told ST.

“In fact, since Trump didn’t bring up Taiwan, we would be happy not to, because, to us, Taiwan is non-negotiable,” said Prof Zheng, who is also dean of the Institute of International Relations at the Chinese university. 

The desire to focus on trade and tariffs issues, as well as practical constraints, could also be likely reasons.

“The meeting was only 100 minutes long, and if you factor in translation time and opening remarks, there wouldn’t be much time to talk about something as complex and sensitive as Taiwan,” said Associate Professor Chen Shih-min, a political science analyst from the National Taiwan University. “The goal was to ease some trade tensions first, which was more achievable,” he added. 

Assistant Professor Ma Chun-wei, a political science analyst from Taiwan’s Tamkang University, agreed, adding that economic and trade issues were “more pressing” for Washington and Beijing at this time.

“This also shows that Washington believes that the possibility of a conflict breaking out in the Taiwan Strait in the short term is not high, so there is no need to immediately bring it to the negotiating table,” Prof Ma added. “That is not necessarily a bad thing for Taiwan.” 

Mr Trump had previously claimed Mr Xi had told him the Chinese military would not invade Taiwan while the Republican President was in office. The US leader has also claimed that China would not invade Taiwan because of US military strength.

While the meeting in South Korea did not lead to a formal agreement, the two leaders agreed to dial back some of their trade measures and work together to resolve others.

Among other things, China agreed to suspend export control measures it had placed on rare earths, which are crucial for the manufacture of modern technology from smartphones to fighter jets. Meanwhile, Mr Trump said he would reduce his fentanyl tariff on China from 20 per cent to 10 per cent.

Professor Chen Dongxiao, president of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, believes Beijing is not overly worried about Taiwan at the moment, given recent events.

He noted how Mr Trump had reportedly blocked

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s plan to make a transit stop in New York

in July, while Mr Lai – whom Beijing distrusts and deems a “dangerous separatist” – has “avoided making new provocative remarks”. 

“Also, China has been trying to shape an ‘irreversible momentum towards eventual reunification’ since the start of the year,” Prof Chen told ST. “Beijing will continue to do so on its own terms, unaffected by what other countries do.”

A day before the meeting, a Chinese government spokesman warned that

Beijing would not rule out the use of force

to bring Taiwan under its control. And in its latest five-year policy plan released days earlier, China also reiterated it would “resolutely fight against separatist forces seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ and oppose external interference”.

The absence of Taiwan in the Trump-Xi talks does not mean Taipei can rest easy, analysts warned.

All eyes will be on the leaders’ next meeting in the new year. Mr Trump has said that he will travel to China in April before he receives Mr Xi in the United States. 

“This was a brief meeting in a third country (South Korea), but when Trump goes to China, the Taiwan issue will very likely be brought up, and we will have to see what is said then,” said Prof Chen of National Taiwan University.

International relations expert Weng Lu-chung, meanwhile, sees Beijing’s silence on the matter as “a form of strategic patience”.

“Not mentioning Taiwan is not an abandonment of the issue. Instead, Beijing could be saving it for a more advantageous moment,” said Associate Professor Weng of Sam Houston State University in Texas.