Wave of anger could sweep liberals to victory in South Korea election

JECHEON, South Korea - When then President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law decree plunged South Korea into chaos, it plummeted sales at Ms Park Myung-ja’s diner in Jechon and became a turning point for many voters in the town.

The 66-year-old chef and restaurant owner is one face of South Korea’s North Chungcheong province, a swing region that has become even more pivotal at a time of deep political polarisation in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

“We need to get furthest away from all that martial law drama to get things back to where they were,” Ms Park said at her Korean restaurant two hours south of Seoul, adding that liberal candidate “Lee Jae-myung looks all right for that”.

Voters are now looking for the winner of the June 3 snap election to calm the economic and political shocks that have roiled the country since

Yoon’s Dec 3, 2024, martial law decree

led to months of economic downturn and sparked nationwide protests.

Ms Park’s Chungcheong province is a key battleground for Mr Kim Moon-soo, the candidate for the conservative People Power Party campaigning on deregulations for companies, and liberal Democratic Party front runner Lee, who is vowing to bring back stability after months of turmoil.

In swing regions such as North Chungcheong province, where Jechon is located, the ruling conservative party risks losing a big chunk of its vote base, with many voters blaming the martial law debacle for weaker private consumption and easing export momentum.

Ms Park’s business crashed after Yoon’s declaration, with some of her biggest customers who are local council officials cancelling dinner reservations in groups of five to 10.

“The first call I got on Dec 4 was from a regular customer who does his year-end dinner here every year. I asked him why he is cancelling it, and he said, ‘Don’t you watch news?’”

Lee, who defied Yoon’s martial law decree, had a 10 percentage point lead over Mr Kim in one of the final opinion polls issued on May 27, with 45 per cent of voters trusting him to revive the economy compared with 32 per cent for Mr Kim.

Conservatives have criticised Lee for a series of criminal cases he faces over accusations of election law violations, corruption and other issues, but they have struggled to unify behind a single candidate and to distance themselves from Yoon.

On May 30, right-winger Kim said voting for Lee would end up “collapsing our economy”, hoping to sway voters in small cities such as Jecheon, an inland town of about 130,000 surrounded by mountainous tourist spots, who are looking for a turning point to revive South Korea’s fortunes.

But the martial law call continues to weigh heavily on conservative chances.

Chinese restaurant owner Choi, whose business is in Pangyo, a town south of Seoul, said: “We definitely had fewer customers, especially from office dinners, after the martial law declaration. It did bite us hard.

“Lee is someone who will uplift more of us who are not doing so well.”

Heavy on spectacle

Consumer sentiment, which dropped by the most in December since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, recovered to pre-martial law levels of 101.8 in May, on expectations of a fresh stimulus package under a new leader.

The shock move rattled markets and put the won among the region’s worst-performing currencies of 2024, hurting business sentiment even before exporters absorbed the full force of US President Donald Trump’s punitive tariff policies.

Now, the strains are setting in, as economic tailwinds from the semiconductor boom and reforms in the capital markets in the past few years are fading.

Whoever wins the June 3 election will face an economy that contracted in the first quarter, manage negotiations with Washington to avoid high tariffs, and need to assuage voters such as Ms Park who are seeing their living standards go backwards from elevated grocery bills and weak spending.

South Korea’s election campaign has been light on policy and heavy on spectacle after twists and turns involving the main candidates.

Voter Jung Soo-hyeon, 59, said: “I wish they had taken housing supply and boosting the domestic market more seriously in their pledges.

“But perhaps because it’s a snap election, that kind of in-depth consideration seems to be missing – which is a bit disappointing.”

Analysts say voters watched economic pledges closely as consumption has been badly hit.

A win for Lee could spur “faster economic growth in the short term”, said Mr Kim Jin-wook from Citi Research.

The Democratic Party “would likely be relatively more keen on providing policy and support for the mid-to-low-income bracket”, he added.

While both top candidates have pledged to draft a second supplementary budget for the year as soon as the election is over, Lee has also promised vouchers to help local businesses and subsidies for childcare, youth and the elderly.

While he has backed away from advocating for universal basic income, some voters including Ms Park, who backed Yoon in the last election, said they see Lee as most likely to look out for their interests.

“Lee’s party seems to be willing to give out more to those who are struggling,” Ms Park said, emphasising that “change” is important. REUTERS