US farm exports to China at risk from Trump’s tariff threats

BEIJING – Chinese imports of US farm goods, which have slowed since the trade war during Donald Trump’s first presidential term, could be hit again if tariff hostilities resume when he returns to office in January, experts say.

China remains the biggest market for US agriculture products despite a decline in imports since 2018 after Beijing slapped tariffs of up to 25 per cent on soybeans, beef, pork, wheat, corn and sorghum in retaliation for duties on Chinese goods imposed by Trump.

Trump has floated the idea of blanket 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese products in a bid to boost US manufacturing, which if enacted could again prompt retaliation on agricultural goods.

China has played down the prospect of another trade war, saying it would like to expand cooperation. Beijing has since 2018 pushed to diversify sourcing and raise domestic output in its quest for greater food security.

Here are key details on China’s import of US agriculture commodities and how the trade has evolved:

‘Irreplaceable’ market

China brought in US$34.05 billion (S$45.16 billion) worth of US agriculture products in 2023, a 20 per cent decline from a year earlier, with imports on track to fall further in 2024. Nonetheless, China remains the largest export market for American farmers. US farm leaders and traders have described China as “irreplaceable”, even as they look for other markets to offset declining Chinese demand.

Soybeans

About half of American soya beans, the top US export to China, are shipped to China, accounting for US$15.2 billion of trade in 2023, according to the US Census Bureau.

However, China has turned to cheap and plentiful Brazilian supplies to reduce its dependence on US beans, with the American market share in China plunging to 18 per cent in 2024 from 40 per cent in 2016, according to Chinese customs data.

Corn

The US was China’s dominant corn supplier for decades until Beijing approved Brazilian imports in 2022.

China’s imports of US corn, at US$2.6 billion in 2023, are up from a decade ago to feed its massive livestock herd, but Brazil has swiftly overtaken the US to become China’s top supplier.

Meat and offal

China is a key market for US exports of chicken legs, pork ears and offal, products for which there is little US demand.

China’s meat and offal imports from the US have declined since 2020 to US$3.3 billion in 2023.

Cotton

China accounted for a quarter of US cotton shipments in value in 2023, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

Shipments of US cotton into the world’s second-largest economy stood at US$1.66 billion in 2023, down from US$3 billion in 2022, as economic headwinds squeezed demand for textiles and garments.

Sorghum

China imported US$867 million worth of sorghum from the US in 2023, down from US$1.52 billion in 2014. Imported sorghum in China is mostly used as a corn substitute in animal feed.

Competition from Argentina and Australia for sorghum, as well as a flood of cheaper Brazilian corn have curbed Chinese demand for US sorghum.

Wheat

China imported US$319 million worth of US wheat in 2023, its smallest such purchase in three years amid ample supplies from Australia, Russia, France and Canada. Growing domestic production – China is the world’s largest wheat producer – has cut demand for overseas supplies, although food manufacturers still require high-protein wheat imports to make certain products. REUTERS