Trump’s move to revoke Chinese student visas could undermine US-China trade talks

BEIJING – Barely three weeks after Washington and Beijing

reached a truce in their trade war

, the Trump administration has moved to revoke the visas of Chinese students studying in the US and restrict the export of key technologies for jet engines and semiconductors to China.

While not directly related to trade issues, the latest US moves – aimed squarely at China – will not be viewed kindly by Beijing, analysts say, and could also invite Chinese retaliation that would damage conditions for future economic talks.

US-China ties have already been volatile under US President Donald Trump’s second term. But in a ramp-up of pressure against China on May 29, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the government will

“aggressively” revoke visas for Chinese students

and tighten scrutiny of future applicants from China.

The Trump administration’s previous moves against international students, such as the termination of the records of about 1,800 students in April, which jeopardised their visa statuses, did not specifically target those from China.

Shanghai-based international relations scholar Shen Dingli noted that the children of many Chinese leaders study in the US. The latest move is akin to “striking at China’s weakness”, he told The Straits Times.

As at 2024, there were about 277,000 Chinese students in the US – the highest of any country besides India, with around 331,000.

On May 29, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning issued a strongly worded response to the visa revocation move, which Mr Rubio said includes students who have “connections to the Chinese Communist Party or (are) studying in critical fields”.

She said: “The US has unreasonably cancelled visas for Chinese students under the pretext of ideology and national security, severely infringed upon the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese students and disrupted normal people-to-people exchanges between the two countries.

“China firmly opposes this and has lodged representations with the US.”

The US has also tightened the screws on technology. On May 28, it was reported that the US has

suspended sales of critical technologies to China

, including those related to jet engines for China’s state-owned plane maker Comac.

The US government also reportedly ordered companies providing software used to design semiconductors to stop selling to China without first getting an export licence. Such software, called electronic design automation, is a choke point in the semiconductor supply chain.

Dr Sun Chenghao, who researches US foreign policy and US-China relations at Tsinghua University, said such US actions threaten to undermine the 90-day trade truce between the two great powers, reached in Geneva earlier in May.

China may perceive these actions as violations of the spirit of the Geneva agreement, potentially prompting retaliatory measures such as expanding export controls on rare earth elements or imposing additional tariffs on US goods, he said.

“Such tit-for-tat measures could derail ongoing negotiations and exacerbate the trade conflict,” he told ST.

The US and China had held talks in Geneva that resulted in them slashing tariffs on imports from each other for 90 days, starting from May 14. Both sides also committed to continuing dialogue on economic and trade issues.

The unexpected breakthrough was greeted with relief by global markets, but any further progress might now be in jeopardy.

Both countries have not started trade negotiations since May 14, nor have they indicated that they are prepared to extend the period, noted Professor Shi Yinhong of Renmin University.

The actions by the US government will “certainly make it more difficult to seriously begin negotiations and reach an agreement”, he said.

On the other hand, Dr Shen believes the US’ tech curbs and trade demands are not necessarily related.

The US’ tariff war against China is meant to expand US exports to China, reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries and open up China’s industrial sector, he said.

These objectives cannot be achieved through visa restrictions or decoupling of technology, he added.

Associate Professor Hoo Tiang Boon, of Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, sees the latest set of US moves as creating additional bargaining chips, which Washington could possibly use in trade negotiations.

China could also play “hardball” and pull out of the trade negotiations, he warned.

But he believes the Chinese are unlikely to do so, as they might think that it is better to have a communication channel with the US, which they had struggled to establish earlier in 2025.

Still, Beijing would likely retaliate in some way, in particular against the technology restrictions, said Prof Hoo.

“I expect them to respond with various curbs of their own, in a calibrated way, designed to hurt Trump’s political base,” he said.

They could also revoke American visas or make it more difficult for Americans to get them, as a matter of principle, even if the outcomes and consequences are asymmetrical, he said.

There were only about 800 American students studying in China in 2024, down from a peak of about 15,000 in 2014.