Trump’s Japan visit an early diplomatic test for Abe protege Takaichi

TOKYO – In the first trip to Asia of his second term, all eyes will be on how US President Donald Trump engages with Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a protege of the late Shinzo Abe with whom the American leader had a close relationship.

After travelling to Malaysia on the weekend, Mr Trump’s three-day visit to Japan is set to begin on Oct 27, less than a week after

Ms Takaichi was elected the country’s first female premier.

For any foreign leader, dealing with Mr Trump, who is more politically seasoned than during his first presidency, is a challenge.

In the world of diplomacy, personal relationships matter, and this is especially true when it comes to Mr Trump.

Without much time to prepare for her first face-to-face interaction with Mr Trump, Ms Takaichi must tackle the daunting task of forming a bond with him and ensuring that Japan-US ties do not derail under her leadership.

“Although it is always difficult to predict how meetings with Trump will unfold, Takaichi seems to have the potential to build rapport with him based on their shared conservative views,” said Ms Kristi Govella, senior adviser and Japan chair at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Ms Govella added that Ms Takaichi could follow the example of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has positioned herself as the closest mainstream European leader to Ms Trump, capitalising on their ideological proximity.

In a similar vein, Ms Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific programme at the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based think-tank, said: “I think the most important thing is that Japan’s new Prime Minister establishes a good relationship with President Trump.”

Ms Glaser said Mr Trump “respects strong leaders with strong opinions”, so she thinks Ms Takaichi should articulate her vision for Japan’s future and its long-standing security alliance with the United States when they meet in Tokyo.

Some foreign affairs experts have observed that Ms Takaichi’s relationship with Mr Abe gives her a distinct advantage that she could use to win Mr Trump’s favour. Mr Abe arguably developed the most profound friendship with Mr Trump of any leader during the US president’s first term.

Ms Takaichi, a hard-line conservative and security hawk, has given many senior posts to lawmakers who were affiliated with Mr Abe before he was killed in a shooting during a campaign rally in 2022, expressing a willingness to emulate her mentor’s attempts to revitalise Japan’s economy and further strengthen its defence capabilities.

At her inauguration press conference on Oct 21, Ms Takaichi used phrases reminiscent of Mr Abe to explain her Cabinet’s basic policies, such as saying that it will “restore Japanese diplomacy that flourishes on the world’s centre stage”.

Mr Trump is scheduled to leave Japan on Oct 29 for South Korea, the final leg of his three-nation trip to the region, where he plans to hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of a two-day annual Asia-Pacific economic summit.

Amid renewed trade tensions between the US and China, few pundits predict a dramatic improvement in bilateral tensions or a groundbreaking deal between them.

Mr Trump’s priorities on China have shifted to trade and technology issues, with his second administration apparently concerned less about Taiwan or Asia’s broader security situation.

He often makes comments on China, but he does so primarily in terms of the US economic relationship with the country, arguing it should be a “two-way street” and that American companies are not permitted to operate on a level playing field with their Chinese rivals.

China, in contrast, seems to have adopted a longer-term and more systemic strategy toward the US, with its focus on growing its power.

While Mr Trump has rarely discussed Taiwan from a security perspective, Ms Glaser said it would be surprising if Mr Xi did not bring up the status of the self-ruled island, which Beijing claims as part of its territory.

“The question is how he raises it and what his ask is,” she said, adding that she thinks Mr Xi will try to extract some concessions from Mr Trump and continue to “get a US president to say that we oppose Taiwan independence”.

Given that Mr Trump’s conversation about Taiwan with Ms Takaichi may be one of the last he has with a world leader before meeting Mr Xi, Ms Glaser said the new Prime Minister has an opportunity to convey the concerns of Japan and other countries in the region.

“If she underscores to him how important the preservation of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is to Japan, and how important Taiwan security is to Japan, then maybe that will influence his thinking about how he deals with Taiwan when it is raised by Xi,” she said.

If Ms Takaichi is prepared to navigate the Taiwan issue with the US leader, she may be wise to keep her own counsel on Trump’s ongoing trade war with China.

Believing that the imposition of hefty tariffs is the best tool to gain compromises from other countries, reduce chronic US trade deficits and advance his “America First” agenda, Mr Trump launched a trade war with China, as he did during his first term, in the early days of his second presidency.

After spiralling into tit-for-tat tariffs on each other’s goods, the United States and China agreed to temporarily drop their protectionist measures from triple digits in May and extended the pause for another 90 days in August.

Despite maintaining the tariff truce for months, which has given officials of the two countries more time to work out differences, fresh US-China trade tensions flared in the weeks leading up to Mr Trump’s meeting with Mr Xi, and before the pause is set to expire on Nov 10.

In response to China’s new export controls on rare earth minerals, Mr Trump has threatened to impose an additional 100 per cent tariff on its goods starting Nov. 1.

Ms Govella, also an associate professor of international relations at the University of Oxford, said she expects Mr Trump to be focused on accentuating his strengths as a dealmaker during the Asia trip. KYODO NEWS