Taiwan’s US representative says Ukraine’s success against Russia will deter China from invading

Ms Hsiao Bi-khim's main big-picture point is that China is watching Russia’s invasion of Ukraine closely and drawing lessons from it. PHOTO: NYTIMES

WASHINGTON - Ms Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s representative to the United States, said on Tuesday that Ukraine’s success in defending itself against Russia’s invasion, with the help of the US and other nations, is important for deterring China from trying to invade Taiwan, a self-ruled democratic island that the Chinese government considers part of its territory.

“Pushing back on aggression is the key message that will help to deter any consideration or miscalculation that an invasion can be conducted unpunished, without costs, in a rapid way,” Ms Hsiao told reporters over a breakfast organised by The Christian Science Monitor, a news organisation.

“We must ensure that anyone contemplating the possibility of an invasion understands that, and that is why Ukraine’s success in defending against aggression is so important also for Taiwan.”

Her statement rebuts arguments by a few Republican lawmakers and former US officials that the US should decrease weapons aid to Ukraine to prioritise building up Taiwan’s defence capabilities and US military resources aimed at countering China.

Republican Senator Josh Hawley has made this argument, as has Mr Elbridge Colby, a Pentagon official in the Trump administration who has advised Mr Hawley.

They say some of the same weapons and missile systems that Taiwan needs for preventing a potential Chinese invasion – including Javelins, Stingers and Patriots – are being sent to Ukraine.

The fastest way for the weapons to reach partner nations is through a process known as the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the US government to transfer arms from the Pentagon’s stockpiles. But those reserves have been depleted by aid to Ukraine.

Those current and former Republican officials also say Taiwan should take priority in receiving weapons that roll off production lines years in the future.

Ms Hsiao said she is not concerned about that since Taiwan’s weapons orders are on a separate track from those of other governments.

Her main big-picture point is that China is watching Russia’s invasion of Ukraine closely and drawing lessons from it. The greater the cost to Russia, the less likely it is that China will take similar steps, the thinking goes.

“Our best hope is that Beijing also takes the lesson that aggression will not succeed, that there will be tremendous international pushback against aggression,” she said.

China is Russia’s most powerful partner, and the two nations declared their relationship had “no limits” before Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has continued to show support for Mr Putin, but has so far refrained from giving weapons aid to Russia, US officials say. This shows that China is being cautious about running afoul of sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and other nations.

Like other Chinese leaders before him, Mr Xi has asserted that Taiwan must eventually come under the rule of China.

But senior Biden administration officials say there is no intelligence indicating Mr Xi has explicitly laid out a timeline for this. Ms Hsiao said Taiwan does not have evidence of a specific timeline either.

The US government is determined to turn Taiwan into a “porcupine”, an entity bristling with weapons that would be too painful to attack.

Ms Hsiao said Taiwan is aware of the need to build up military deterrence while assuring China it wants to maintain the status quo rather than declaring independence.

She noted that Taiwan is increasing the duration of its compulsory military service for men from four months to one year, working with the US to improve military training and creating the capability to service F-16 fighter jets on its own. NYTIMES

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