Taiwan President Lai’s approval ratings dip ahead of 1st anniversary in office amid uncertain US ties

TAIPEI – Heightened uncertainty over Taiwan’s relations with the US has been a surprise challenge for Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, making his first year in office even harder than expected.

Difficulties in navigating this challenge have contributed to his disapproval ratings rising, according to several polls published in the lead-up to his first anniversary on May 20. 

The latest survey results by leading pollster Formosa released on April 29 showed that Mr Lai’s disapproval rating of 47.3 per cent has overtaken his approval rating of 47.1 per cent, the first time this has happened in this poll since he assumed office nearly a year ago. 

Another poll by opposition-leaning broadcaster TVBS published on May 16 put his disapproval rating at 55 per cent – a record high in his presidency – versus his approval rating of 32 per cent – a record low.

Meanwhile, an April 16 poll by Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, which is aligned with Mr Lai’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), showed that 45.7 per cent of respondents disapproved of his job performance, the highest rating recorded; 45.9 per cent said they approved, the second-lowest recorded.

Analysts say that while Mr Lai has not lost his core supporters entirely, the numbers suggest he is facing high levels of dissatisfaction among more moderate Taiwanese not aligned with the DPP or the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). 

“More and more Taiwanese think that Taiwan is a huge mess right now, whether it has to do with domestic politics or on the foreign policy front,” said Professor Yeh Yao-yuan, a political scientist and Taiwan studies expert at the University of St Thomas in Houston, Texas. 

“The disapproval comes from those that were previously neutral towards Lai, but given all the challenges that he has had to face, it could have been much worse,” Prof Yeh told The Straits Times. 

Still, Mr Lai’s approval ratings are better than that of his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen’s first term in office in 2017, when her approval rating sank below 30 per cent according to several polls, from fallout from a set of controversial Bills including a draft same-sex marriage legislation.

While Mr Lai, whom Beijing distrusts, was expected to face cross-strait tensions, as well as domestic turbulence in the opposition-dominated legislature, uncertainty over Taiwan’s relations with the US has emerged as a surprise challenge.

This is especially in contrast with the former Biden administration in the US, which had shown stronger and more direct support for Taiwan.

While Taiwanese officials champion the island’s closer relations with the US, scepticism about Washington as a reliable security partner has grown in Taiwan since US President Donald Trump took office. Despite not having formal diplomatic relations, Washington is Taiwan’s most important security backer against Beijing, which claims the island as its territory. 

In February, the Taiwanese watched with alarm as Mr Trump pivoted towards Russia and undercut Ukraine, the latter whose fate is seen as a parallel to their own. Mr Trump slapping hefty tariffs of 32 per cent on Taiwanese goods in early April

also left many Taiwanese bewildered

, even if the duties are currently paused. 

On May 12, Mr Trump raised eyebrows after describing the results of the US-China trade talks in Geneva as being “great for unification”, though the US state department later clarified that he was not thinking of Taiwan when he made the comment. The word “unification” is often used in the context of China annexing Taiwan.

According to an April 25 survey published by Brookings Institution, the Taiwanese believe that the US is less trustworthy now than a year ago, when Mr Joe Biden was president. Some 15.9 per cent of Taiwanese said that the US was “very untrustworthy”, close to double the 8.2 per cent recorded nine months prior. 

“Lai has always championed strong US-Taiwan relations, but the tariffs have left some wondering if the relationship is really as good as advertised,” said Associate Professor Chen Shih-min, a political scientist at National Taiwan University.

Respondents from the same survey also said they felt less confident that Washington would support them in the event of a military conflict with China, with only 37.5 per cent of Taiwanese saying that it was “likely” or “very likely” that the US would step in, down from 44.5 per cent.

The authors of the report, led by National Taiwan University Assistant Professor Lev Nachman, said that this question “has never been direr for Taiwan.” 

“If perceptions that the US will not help Taiwan increase, it will have major ramifications for how civil society will respond in the event of a military conflict over Taiwan,” the authors wrote, adding that research has shown that Taiwanese are more willing to participate in the island’s defence if they believe the US will also be involved. 

Meanwhile, cross-strait relations have worsened as a more assertive Beijing ramps up military and diplomatic pressures against the island, holding several large-scale military drills surrounding Taiwan in recent months. 

On his end, Mr Lai has also used stronger language than his predecessors when it comes to Beijing,

formally designating China a “foreign hostile force”

in a speech in March.

That allowed him to justify measures he laid out to counter Chinese influence and espionage efforts, which include the resumption of military trials for soldiers accused of treason or spying, said Prof Yeh. 

“By officially labelling China as an enemy, it gives the government the right to exercise its power in the interests of protecting national security,” he said. 

On May 14, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said that since taking office, Mr Lai’s actions have proven that he is a “saboteur of peace” and a “crisis maker”.

As for domestic politics, Mr Lai had been expected to face obstacles in governance, given that the ruling party does not have a majority in the 113-seat legislature. Parliament is controlled by an opposition coalition formed by the KMT and the smaller Taiwan People’s Party, which has passed legislation curbing the president’s powers. 

“Lai’s domestic political difficulties have been tougher than expected, as the opposition has made it almost impossible for his party to get anything done in Parliament. Every day, there’s fighting in Parliament – literally,” said Prof Chen. 

However, Prof Yeh said that things may change should an ongoing campaign started in February to recall dozens of legislators tip the balance back in favour of the ruling party.

Pro-DPP groups have filed recall motions against 34 KMT politicians and one independent aligned with the KMT, while the KMT has launched a counter-campaign targeting 15 DPP legislators. Recall votes could begin as soon as August.

In the face of all these developments, it would be sensible for Mr Lai to avoid rocking the boat too much, experts said. 

“Given all the challenges he’s facing – what with concerns over US foreign policy, a very aggressive China, and little support from the legislature – it would be too risky for him to do anything too drastic at this time,” said Prof Yeh.

“Staying more reactive (rather than proactive) would be the best way forward.”