TAIPEI – Mr William Lai Ching-te’s mother was bitterly disappointed when the Harvard-educated doctor told her in the 1990s that he was giving up his medical career to enter politics. 

She might forgive him now: As Taiwan’s vice-president, Mr Lai is expected to be named on Wednesday as the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s candidate in the 2024 presidential election, a vote being watched more closely than ever, from Washington to Beijing. 

With US-China tensions increasingly centred around Taiwan, the self-governing island Beijing claims as its own, the winner of the January 2024 election will immediately step into a role that could determine the trajectory of geopolitics and the global economy for years to come.

Since taking office in 2016, President Tsai Ing-wen’s rejection of the idea that Taiwan is just a part of China has often drawn criticism from an increasingly aggressive Beijing while earning the praise of policymakers from both political parties in Washington.

Ms Tsai’s recent stops in the United States, where she met House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and was feted at an awards ceremony in New York, underscore the growing strength of US-Taiwan relations.

“I believe our bond is stronger now than at any time or point in my lifetime,” Mr McCarthy told reporters after the meeting, held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.

But the US also has uneasy memories of a previous Taiwanese president, Mr Chen Shui-bian, who frayed nerves in Washington with his unpredictable rhetoric and more robust push to cement Taiwan’s de facto independence.

While Mr Lai, 63, insists he shares the same stance on Taiwan’s political status as Ms Tsai, arguing that the island is already “an independent country” – although largely unrecognised – and that there is no need to declare independence, some of his past comments have generated concern. 

During his time as premier in 2017, he described himself as a worker for Taiwan’s independence. It appears to be a long-held view. During a visit to Shanghai’s Fudan University in 2014, when he was the mayor of Tainan city, he said independence was a consensus view in Taiwanese society. 

Not surprisingly, China has been critical of his views. In 2019, Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office described his pro-independence comments as “arrogant”, saying they “aim to fire-up cross-strait confrontation and endanger the peaceful status on the Taiwan Straits”. The office’s then spokesman Ma Xiaoguang said Mr Lai’s actions had “completely torn the fake mask off the DPP”.

‘Accidental’ politician

Mr Lai and his supporters say his previous, more outspoken rhetoric is a thing of the past and that he has grown as a political leader. 

“This is not just an election tactic,” said Mr Kuo Kuo-wen, a DPP lawmaker known for his close ties with Mr Lai, in an interview. “It reflects that Lai has learnt the reality of Taiwan’s international position and the stakes of geopolitical tensions.”

It is still unclear who Mr Lai could face in January’s vote. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT), which favours closer ties with China, has yet to decide on its candidate but says it will do so by the end of June.

Foxconn Technology Group founder Terry Gou and New Taipei City Mayor Hou Yu-ih are the main hopefuls, according to opinion polls. KMT chairman Eric Chu has indicated he does not intend to run, but he remains a possible outside contender. 

Jump into politics

Mr Lai’s politics and views on Taiwan were shaped by his upbringing. He was born in 1959 into a mining family on the coast of northern Taiwan, just outside Taipei. His mother raised him and his five siblings alone after his father died when he was two years old. 

His mother played a key role in his life and career choices, according to an authorised biography. He studied hard to become a doctor, getting a master’s degree in public health from Harvard University, in line with his mother’s aspirations for him. 

He then defied her wishes when deciding to ditch his medical career in favour of politics in the mid-1990s.

In his official biography, he describes how he was motivated to stand up for Taiwan during the Third Cross-Strait Crisis, when China fired missiles into the sea around the island in 1995 and 1996. His dissatisfaction with the KMT, which had ruled Taiwan since the 1940s, was another motivating factor, he said. 

Mr Lai decided to run to be Tainan’s representative in the now-abolished National Assembly in 1996. His mother vigorously opposed his decision to enter politics, relenting only when she determined he had little chance of winning and would be forced to return to medicine. 

She was wrong: He won, launching what would become a successful political career that he describes as “an accidental journey”.

He later won a seat in Taiwan’s legislature and then became mayor of the southern city of Tainan in 2010. 

As mayor, he earned a reputation for integrity. On official trips to Taipei, he would stay at his family’s older, modest home rather than seek out fancier lodging. He does not smoke or drink alcohol and is seen as less social than many grassroots politicians. He is also renowned for his memory – giving speeches without notes – and for spending time studying US, Japanese and Chinese politics. 

2020 challenge

On the basis of his favourable poll ratings and reputation as a competent administrator in Tainan, he was tapped to serve as premier under Ms Tsai between 2017 and 2019. 

That relationship fractured in 2019 when Mr Lai quit his post to challenge Ms Tsai for the DPP’s nomination in the 2020 presidential election. Ms Tsai ended up easily beating Mr Lai in the party primary before extending an olive branch by making him vice-president for her second term. 

Sources familiar with the situation say there is no lingering animosity between the two and described them as having a professional and respectful relationship.

As for how government policy would change under a possible President Lai, people close to him insist he will not deviate from Ms Tsai’s course of strengthening ties with Taiwan’s major democratic partners, such as the US, Japan and Europe. His recent speeches as vice-president also reveal a concern about sustainability and Taiwan’s goal of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. 

But China looms over it all. 

“Taiwan is at a critical moment of survival and development,” he wrote in a Facebook post in March, when he registered to be a presidential candidate. “We must continue to strengthen Taiwan, uphold democratic values, and ensure Taiwan’s security.” BLOOMBERG