Taipei braced for more Chinese air patrols in 2022

TAIPEI • Taiwan is bracing itself for more Chinese military patrols next year, after missions by China's air force near the island more than doubled this year, fuelling concern about a clash between the two sides.

Chinese warplanes have made some 950 forays into Taiwan's air-defence identification zone (Adiz) since January, according to Bloomberg-compiled data from Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence. That compares with about 380 sorties the prior year, when the ministry began releasing the data amid a sharp rise in such flights. The Adiz is not territorial airspace but a broader area Taiwan monitors that acts to give it more time to respond to any threats.

Tensions could rise in the coming year, with key events on the political calendars for Beijing and Taipei. Not only is Chinese President Xi Jinping heading towards a party congress in which he is expected to secure a precedent-busting third term in power, but Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen is also facing elections viewed as a bellwether for the 2024 presidential race.

"China will send more military airplanes into Taiwan's Adiz next year with more intimidating operations," said Professor Kuo Yujen, director of Taiwan's Institute for National Policy Research. "The situation in 2022 is worth being concerned about as it's going to be a turning point."

The political events increase pressure on Mr Xi and Ms Tsai to show strength and resolve to respond to perceived provocations.

China considers Taiwan a renegade province to be reunified, by force if necessary.

President Joe Biden had said the US would come to Taiwan's defence if necessary. But Secretary of State Antony Blinken has since made clear that Washington has not changed its "one China" policy regarding Taiwan. Mr Biden has a political incentive to maintain a firm line towards Beijing before congressional mid-term elections.

Taiwan recorded the largest number of Chinese incursions in October, when both sides held national day celebrations and the US and its allies conducted a series of naval exercises in nearby waters. That included 56 flights on Oct 4, the biggest daily count on record.

"China's quasi-military means are part of its grey-zone tactic to intimidate and coerce Taiwan - it's a hybrid threat," said Dr Ou Si-fu, research fellow at Taiwan's Institute for National Defence and Security Research, citing other efforts including luring Taiwan's diplomatic allies away and economic coercion.

"China's activities in the (Taiwan) strait will increase as its competition with the US intensifies."

Japanese officials, including Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, have also become increasingly outspoken about the need to prepare for a contingency around Taiwan.

Japan's Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi agreed to launch a military hotline with China next year. In a video call with his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe on Monday, Mr Kishi emphasised the importance of stability in the Taiwan strait, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said.

BLOOMBERG, REUTERS