Support for Japan PM Kishida tops 50% amid speculation on early election

TOKYO – The support rate for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Cabinet rose to more than 50 per cent in a Nikkei newspaper poll for the first time in eight months, adding fuel to speculation he could call an early general election. 

Some 52 per cent of respondents in the Nikkei poll released late on Sunday said they supported Mr Kishida, up four percentage points on the previous month.

Two other surveys also showed increases in approval for the Premier, who is set to host the Group of Seven summit in his hometown of Hiroshima later in May. 

Mr Kishida need not hold a general election until 2025.

But renewing his mandate might help him keep control of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as he heads into divisive debates over how to fund his policy pledges on defence and support for families. 

A separate poll by Kyodo News put his support at 46.6 per cent, up 8.5 points on the previous month.

A third survey by JNN showed his approval rating had risen by 2.9 percentage points to 47.2 per cent. 

There has been media speculation that Mr Kishida could dissolve Parliament for an election if the May 19 to 21 summit goes smoothly and gives him another fillip in the polls.

The LDP won four of five seats in by-elections in late April, although gains for the opposition Japan Innovation Party in local elections tempered the victory. 

With the support rate for major opposition parties relatively weak, Mr Kishida’s ruling coalition would likely keep its majority in Parliament if there was an early election.

The timing of the vote could play into central bank policy, as the Bank of Japan may come under pressure not to make any changes that could cause ructions in the markets during any campaign period. 

The bank at a meeting last week scrapped its guidance on future interest rate levels while keeping its main stimulus measures unchanged, as governor Kazuo Ueda prepared the ground for taking a more flexible stance on policy.

Mr Kishida has pledged to

increase defence spending by 60 per cent over the next five years.

He also wants to double outlays on children and families in a bid to tackle a “national crisis” of an ageing and declining population that threatens economic prospects.

Mr Kishida has yet to spell out details on how these measures can be funded in the mid to long-term. 

Support for Mr Kishida slumped in 2022 over his handling of a scandal

involving his party’s ties to a fringe religion formerly known as the Unification Church.

His March visit to Ukraine

and progress towards a rapprochement in a long-running feud with South Korea helped turn the trend around. BLOOMBERG