South Korea’s population drop eases, raising hopes of reversal

SEOUL – South Korea’s population decline slowed sharply in January as a rebound in births raised expectations that the country could approach a turning point after years of contraction.

The natural decrease – deaths minus births – narrowed to 5,539, the smallest gap in four years, according to official data released on March 26.

The country recorded 26,916 births and 32,454 deaths in January, extending the natural decline, though at a much slower pace. South Korea’s population has been shrinking since peaking at 51.84 million in 2019, with monthly decreases continuing since November that year.

The improvement was driven by a rise in births, which climbed 11.7 per cent from 2025, marking the highest January figure since 2019.

The increase reflects a recovery in marriages, particularly among people in their 30s, who account for the bulk of births, suggesting that delayed weddings during the pandemic are now feeding into higher birth numbers.

Birth rates rose notably among women in their early and late 30s, reinforcing signs of a demographic rebound in key childbearing age groups.

While the overall population continued to shrink, January’s decline was the smallest since January 2022, when the population fell by 5,205.

The latest figure was significantly narrower than recent monthly declines, including 12,533 in December, 9,998 in November and 7,848 in October, as well as 15,306 in January 2025.

Four regions, including Seoul and Incheon, posted net population gains, while 13 others saw declines.

Marriage rebound fuels cautious optimism

Although South Korea still has one of the world’s lowest total fertility rates, the figure has been gradually recovering from a record low of 0.72 in 2023 to 0.75 in 2024, with a provisional estimate of 0.8 for 2025.

The monthly total fertility rate stood at 0.99 in January, the highest since the government began compiling monthly data.

The narrowing decline has raised expectations that South Korea could see a potential reversal, with the population shifting back to growth if the trend continues. The country has recorded natural population decreases every year since 2020.

A report released in December by the National Assembly Budget Office projected a stronger rebound in fertility in the near term, driven by a sustained increase in marriages, including delayed weddings during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Annual marriages fell from 239,000 in 2019 to 191,000 in 2022, before recovering to around 240,000 in 2025. The report said the increase in marriages is likely to support births in the coming years, with the total fertility rate projected to reach 0.9 in 2026 and continue rising through 2030.

Addressing the low birth rate is a key policy priority for President Lee Jae Myung’s administration, which has introduced measures including cash incentives for childbirth, housing support for newlyweds and expanded parental leave subsidies.

However, the projected fertility rate remains far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to stabilise the population without accounting for migration or mortality changes, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

South Korea is also rapidly ageing, with 21.2 per cent of its population aged 65 or older in 2025, officially classifying it as a super-aged society under United Nations standards.

The combination of low fertility and rapid ageing is expected to lead to labour shortages, according to a report by the Korea Employment Information Service. The economically active population is projected to begin declining in 2030.

If current trends persist, the country could face a shortfall of 8.2 million workers relative to job demand by 2033, the report said. THE KOREA HERALD/ASIA NEWS NETWORK