South Korea’s hopes for Asia-Pacific forum take back seat as Trump and Xi come to town

SEOUL - After weeks of frantic negotiations, South Korea’s hopes of a breakthrough on US tariffs ahead of this week’s Asia-Pacific leaders’ meeting are fading, as US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping eye a deal that could ease trade tensions.

Mr Trump will arrive in South Korea on Oct 29 for the first time in his second term, but will leave the following day, skipping the main sessions of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) forum and forcing several other leaders to reschedule trips, according to three diplomatic sources.

The Apec forum in 2025 has been overshadowed by

Mr Trump’s sweeping tariffs

that he announced soon after his inauguration in January, and other challenges to global trade, particularly Washington’s deepening tensions with Beijing.

Mr Trump’s policies have heightened the importance of bringing world leaders together and brought rare international attention to a typically stodgy diplomatic event, said Mr John Delury, a senior fellow at the Asia Society.

“Given the state of multilateralism and world order right now, this may be one of the most consequential Apec we’ve seen in a while,” he said. “I think we could see drama that Apec is not used to.”

For Apec host South Korea, this week marks a major diplomatic test for President Lee Jae Myung, who took office in June in a snap election called after

his predecessor was removed

following an attempt to impose martial law.

Mr Lee will meet Mr Trump, Mr Xi, and Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, key players in North Asian diplomacy and handling North Korea.

South Korea will also play host to an expected meeting between Mr Xi and Mr Trump on Oct 30, the first such face-to-face since Mr Trump began his second term.

Stock markets across the world jumped on Oct 27 after US officials said negotiators from the US and China had hashed out a framework for a trade agreement, and expectations are growing that the two leaders will sign a deal.

Mr Trump may see a win as headlines saying that he is making progress on his trade agenda, signing deals with a number of countries and not backing down in the face of criticism of his approach, said Mr Matthew Goodman, with the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC.

“I suspect President Xi wants to portray China, and himself, as the real leader of a more prosperous, economically integrated Asia-Pacific region,” he added.

“Although there is widespread scepticism in the region about these claims, President Trump’s disruptive approach helps feed China's narrative.”

As for the host South Korea, the bar is lower.

"”I think Seoul will be seen as a successful host – and will feel it has dodged a bullet – if it gets through the Apec and related meetings without major disruption,” Mr Goodman said.

South Korea deal in doubt

Seoul has sought to finalise by the Apec forum its preliminary trade deal reached with Mr Trump in July, after the first summit meeting between Mr Lee and Mr Trump ended with no agreement in August, with sticking points over the details of a US$350 billion (S$453 billion) investment package included in the pact.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Oct 27 that the overall framework of a deal with South Korea was done but was unlikely to be finalised during Mr Trump’s visit, and South Korean officials have also said wide disagreements remained.

South Korea’s industry ministry said on Oct 28 that both sides are continuing to communicate and that Seoul was seeking to maximise its national interests.

A further delay to the trade deal would be a setback to South Korean automakers like Hyundai Motor which has been hit by 25 per cent tariffs on US exports, compared with 15 per cent US tariffs on Japanese cars.

A South Korean official said Mr Lee and Mr Trump may release a document that summarises areas of recent agreement, but that does not resolve the tariff issues.

Mr Lee will have his first meeting with Mr Xi, who will be visiting South Korea for the first time in 11 years, as South Korea increasingly finds itself in the political and economic crossfire between the US and China.

China has

slapped some South Korean shipbuilders with sanctions

for their cooperation with the United States.

The Lee administration said it is circulating an Apec draft joint statement on the importance of free trade, and is separately seeking agreement for statements on artificial intelligence and tackling demographic change.

Three diplomats from Apec member states told Reuters that after years of declining consensus, they were not optimistic that the forum could agree on a joint statement, at least on any substantive measures.

Mr Trump will arrive in South Korea after announcing a slew of trade agreements in Malaysia on the sidelines of the 11-member Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean) summit, overseeing the signing of an expanded truce between Thailand and Cambodia, and

meeting Japan’s Ms Takaichi.

However, his early departure from Apec will symbolically cede the spotlight to Mr Xi, who is expected to stay through the final ceremonies on Nov 1, as China will host the 2026 forum.

“Apec’s not the most substantive global talk shop but Trump shouldn’t leave the stage to Xi,” said Mr Sean King of Park Strategies in New York. “We need to remind our partners and allies that we’re there for them.” REUTERS