South Korean election: Can a new president bring back stability?

SEOUL – South Koreans are set to finally choose a new president after the nation’s worst constitutional crisis in decades.

The June 3 election

to replace ousted conservative leader Yoon Suk Yeol offers to be a potential turning point that either brings stability to the political realm and markets after months of chaos, or deepens painful divisions within the nation.

The leadership vacuum since the end of 2024 has battered confidence among consumers and businesses, helping to push the economy into reverse, just as US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs cast a shadow over future growth.

Why is there an election now?

The snap vote was called after

Yoon was removed from power

on April 4 for violating the Constitution, less than three years after he became president.

Under South Korean law, an election has to be called within 60 days of the removal of a president.

Yoon shocked the world in December by

declaring martial law for the first time

since the launch of full democracy in the nation about 40 years ago.

His decree, partly aimed at overcoming a political stalemate in the opposition-controlled Parliament, was quickly overturned by lawmakers, who then impeached him.

Who are the major candidates? 

South Koreans vote for one candidate, with the winner serving a single, five-year term. Voting is not compulsory.

The two main candidates vying to become president are left-leaning Lee Jae-myung, former head of the main opposition Democratic Party, and right-winger Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party (PPP).

While their political careers have taken them in different directions, both are former labour activists.

Mr Kim was imprisoned for leading a pro-democracy movement in the 1980s when South Korea still had military rule.

Lee, 60, lost to Yoon by a razor-thin margin in the last presidential vote in 2022, but enjoyed a majority in Parliament that he used to frustrate Yoon’s policy agenda.

He then led the impeachment campaign to oust Yoon after the martial law fiasco. 

After Yoon’s ousting, Mr Kim, 73,

won the support of the PPP’s rank and file

to stand as a candidate instead of the leadership’s choice of a more centrist alternative.

Mr Kim won plaudits from some conservatives for opposing Yoon’s impeachment, but he will need to appeal beyond the party’s hardcore support if he is to build momentum for a successful campaign.

The PPP, which had been struggling to broaden its support base, recently saw its backing grow after the candidates’ first TV debate and Yoon’s departure from the party.

Among other candidates in the race is 40-year-old Lee Jun-seok, a former PPP leader now standing for the Reform Party, a recently formed right-wing party.

Mr Lee Jun-seok could serve as a spoiler vote by dividing conservatives.

He takes a far more critical line on Yoon’s martial law and has so far refused to join an alliance with Mr Kim.

What do the candidates stand for?

In the past, Lee Jae-myung likened himself to Mr Bernie Sanders, but he has moved closer to the centre since the last presidential election by shedding or watering down plans such as introducing universal income. 

Still, a Lee administration would likely mean more government spending to aid households, state support for developing the artificial intelligence industry and greater rights for smaller shareholders to help loosen the grip of controlling families on the nation’s biggest conglomerates.

Lee has proposed shortening the presidency term to four years from five while allowing two terms through a vote as early as 2026. 

Mr Kim has characterised himself as the business-friendly choice.

He says he would press ahead with deregulation to spur growth while offering support for small firms.

Mr Kim also wants to lift the limit of presidential terms from one to two – and make them four years each.

He has suggested the upcoming leader shorten his tenure to three years to expedite the reform. 

Mr Lee Jun-seok is trying to appeal to a younger but still conservative demographic with a message that he does not come with the baggage of the PPP leadership that failed to swiftly part ways with their ousted leader Yoon.

Mr Lee advocates for more support for science researchers, deregulation for companies and a lower minimum wage for some foreign workers than for Koreans.

Who is likely to win? 

Lee Jae-myung is the clear front runner, but recent polls show his lead over Mr Kim is narrowing. 

Lee had the backing of about 45 per cent of respondents in a Gallup Korea poll conducted between May 20-22, a drop of 6 percentage points compared with the previous week.

Support for Mr Kim rose by 7 percentage points to 36 per cent.

Mr Lee Jun-seok improved his standing by 2 percentage points to 10 per cent, his highest level so far. 

If either the Reform Party’s Mr Lee Jun-seok or Mr Kim pulls out of the race, the other remaining conservative candidate could draw level or even win the election if they attract the support of their departing rival.

Both conservative politicians have so far insisted they would not drop out.

Past elections have seen candidates withdraw mid-campaign despite vowing not to.

What are the biggest concerns for South Korean voters? 

Shoring up growth will be a key task for Yoon’s successor.

The shrinking of the economy in the first quarter of 2025 demonstrates the fragile state of business activity and consumer sentiment, even before exporters absorb the full force of Mr Trump’s new duties. 

Enhancing access to affordable housing and creating more jobs would offer a more tangible improvement for people’s livelihoods.

Restoring a sense of national unity is another issue cited in polls.

While that is more easily said than done, a period of greater stability under a new leader would help calm tensions.

Long-sought constitutional reform to allow consecutive terms might also bring more continuity to South Korean politics.

The importance of foreign policy has also been flagged in polls as a key concern, given the potential economic damage of tariffs and the need to deter the threat of North Korea’s ever advancing military capabilities and its alliance with Russia.

What’s at stake for the region? 

The new leader will need to figure out how to press ahead with stronger trilateral security ties with Washington and Tokyo as concerns grow over Mr Trump’s commitment to existing defence arrangements.

Much-improved relations with Japan under Yoon are perhaps most at risk, given a tendency for new leaders in South Korea to pull the rug on progress already made.

Lee’s current political stance looks less likely to make diplomatic whiplash than in the past, though he may return to a more conciliatory stance vis-a-vis Pyongyang, a pattern that has played out before with a switch away from conservative rule.

If Mr Kim wins, expect a continuation of Yoon’s hardline on North Korea and South Korea’s strengthening of trilateral ties with Japan and the US.

The conservative candidate has also talked about the need to pursue Nato-like nuclear sharing arrangements.

Another key question is how South Korea will seek balance in the face of an intensifying rivalry between its security ally, the US, and its biggest trading partner, China.

Could Trump be a factor in the election? 

South Korea’s exports are equivalent in size to more than 40 per cent of the economy, making it one of the most vulnerable countries when it comes to Mr Trump’s tariffs. 

Lee has said there’s no need to rush into an early agreement in talks with the US, saying the US does not necessarily have an “overwhelming upper hand” in the negotiations.

Mr Kim has said he would seek an immediate summit with Mr Trump to resolve the tariff issue, if elected.

As a deal before the election seems unlikely, those negotiating stances might influence voters. 

On the margins, how candidates respond to talk of US troop reductions or bumping up the contribution Seoul makes for the American military presence might also provide food for thought.

What other policies might change? 

South Korea’s energy mix is likely to go through major shifts depending on who wins the election.

Lee has pledged to shut down all coal-fired power plants by 2040 and opposes building new nuclear reactors. He has called for expanding sources of renewable energy .

Any roll-back in nuclear policy would contrast with a global resurgence in interest in the low-carbon energy source, as countries such as China, Japan, the United Arab Emirates and France all push to build or revive reactors to help reduce their carbon footprints.

Mr Kim supports nuclear energy as a cheap and safe source for power generation. BLOOMBERG