South Korea warns that North may do nuclear test near US election period

SEOUL – North Korea may be considering a nuclear test near the time the US presidential election is held to raise its profile, South Korea’s defence minister said, as the North’s leader Kim Jong Un rolls out new warheads capable of striking the US and its allies in Asia.

Seoul will reach a deal with Japan and the US to standardise the tracking of missiles fired from North Korea, Defence Minister Shin Won-sik said in an interview on July 28 in Tokyo.

He was visiting the Japanese capital to sign a deal with the US and Japan to lock in gains in security cooperation that have included joint military training.

“North Korea has completed preparations to conduct a nuclear test when a decision is made,” Mr Shin said. “We cannot rule out the possibility of that decisive moment being right before or after the US presidential election to raise its leverage against the US.”

The US election will take place in early November.

Pyongyang has a habit of

timing its provocations to coincide with major political events.

While Mr Kim had held three in-person summits with Donald Trump when the latter was president, North Korean state media has rebuffed comments made by Trump on his connection with Mr Kim. The regime has also had harsh words for the Biden administration and ignored its calls to return to long-stalled denuclearisation talks.

North Korea last tested a nuclear device in September 2017 – its most powerful atomic bomb by far with an estimated yield of between 120 kilotons and 250 kilotons.

The North is estimated to have about 80 to 90 warheads, the Seoul-based Korea Institute for Defence Analyses said in a paper released in January 2023, adding that Mr Kim is looking to have between 100 and 300 over the long term.

In 2023, North Korea released photos of Mr Kim inspecting the state’s biggest display of warheads since he took power about a decade ago, showing Pyongyang has made progress in miniaturising the weapons. This could lead to testing to verify the capabilities of its newest bomb, which is designed to be used on a variety of delivery systems, the Vienna-based Open Nuclear Network said in a June 2023 report. 

The US, Japan and South Korea have started real-time data sharing since December on missile launches and have come up with standard operating procedures (SOPs) for information sharing, Mr Shin said. 

“The three countries have almost reached an agreement on the SOPs,” he said, adding that he expected a deal to be signed soon.

North Korea may also be emboldened to try a nuclear test due to cooperation with Russia that the US and South Korea have said includes arms transfers to help President Vladimir Putin in his assault on Ukraine. In June, Mr Kim pledged to provide unconditional support to Mr Putin for his military efforts in Ukraine when the Russian leader made his first visit to North Korea in 24 years.

The two also signed a mutual defence deal, rekindling cooperation that was forged in the Cold War and is now backed by the nuclear arsenals of the two. Mr Putin has indicated that Russia is ready to use its veto power at the United Nations Security Council to block any new sanctions on Mr Kim for weapons tests in defiance of resolutions from the global body.

The risks to the world are enormous. A full-scale conflict on the Korean peninsula could leave millions dead and cost the global economy US$4 trillion (S$5.37 trillion) in the first year, or 3.9 per cent of gross domestic product – more than double the damage from Russia’s assault on Ukraine, according to analysis by Bloomberg Economics.

Mr Shin said North Korea has sent 12,000 shipping containers to Russia that could hold as many as 5.6 million artillery shells.

The regime has also sent scores of ballistic missiles to help Mr Putin in his war, he added.

“We believe that Russia is providing technical support not just for rockets, but also for the modernisation of conventional weapons that North Korea wants,” Mr Shin said. “We will have to monitor with time how these technologies are transferred to North Korea and lead to changes in its weapons systems.” 

Mr Shin’s visit to Japan is the first by a South Korean defence minister in 15 years. Cooperation between Tokyo and Seoul grew after conservative South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol took office about two years ago and worked to repair ties that frayed due to historical issues. 

This led to the Biden administration stepping up trilateral cooperation, which has brought the Asian nations closer on security issues. The US has positioned tens of thousands of its military personnel in both countries.

Mr Shin lauded the improved relations and said these are in the interests of both countries. 

“Japan is safer when South Korea provides a shield at the front line,” he said, referring to threats posed by North Korea. “For South Korea’s safety, too, we are stronger when we have an assuring backing at the rear from Japan.” Bloomberg