Sharp drop in Chinese military aircraft near Taiwan raises questions

TAIPEI – Taiwan has not detected a single Chinese military aircraft around the island for nine of the past 10 days, leaving experts puzzling over the reasons for the dramatic reduction in sorties.

China claims Taiwan is part of its territory, and has threatened to use force to bring the island under its control.

Beijing has stepped up military pressure on Taiwan in recent years, deploying fighter jets and warships around the island on a near-daily basis.

But since Feb 28, only two Chinese aircraft have been recorded in a single 24-hour period near Taiwan, according to an AFP tally of figures released daily by the Defence Ministry.

That compares with 86 for the same period in 2025.

It is the longest stretch of no detections since AFP began recording the figures in 2024.

An average of six Chinese warships have been spotted on a daily basis around the island in the past 10 days, which was the same as in 2025.

Chinese military sorties around Taiwan also fell around 42 per cent in January and February compared with the same period in 2025. The number of warships was about 4.5 per cent lower than a year ago.

Experts have been speculating about the reasons for the sharp drop in Chinese aircraft deployments, with possibilities ranging from China’s annual political gathering, known as the Two Sessions, currently under way in Beijing, to its recent military purges.

Other reasons include US President Donald Trump’s scheduled trip to Beijing later in March to meet his Chinese counterpart, Mr Xi Jinping, and the Middle East conflict.

“I didn’t expect to be worried about the cessation of PLA (People’s Liberation Army) operations around Taiwan, but the lack of a rational explanation is disconcerting,” Mr Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, wrote on Substack.

Another long-time observer of the Chinese military told AFP that it was “not clear at all how to read it”.

“I’m puzzling over the same thing.”

‘Significant disruption’

Mr Ben Lewis of the analysis website PLATracker said it was “clearly a significant disruption to routine activity”.

“The longer the activity gap persists, the more concerned I will be about broader implications, but I have not seen any indications that the PRC (People’s Republic of China) is preparing for any major kinetic action,” Mr Lewis told AFP.

Dr Su Tzu-yun, a military expert at Taipei’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, surmised that Beijing might be trying to “weaken public support” for Taiwan’s plans to increase its defence spending.

Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has proposed US$40 billion (S$51 billion) in extra defence spending by his government over eight years, but the plan has been blocked by the opposition-controlled Parliament.

Other analysts were not surprised by the easing of aircraft activity.

“PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ (air defence identification zone) drop to/near zero around the time of the annual Two Sessions every year,” Mr Brian Hart, deputy director and fellow of the China Power Project at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote on social media platform X.

“If this pattern persists well beyond the Two Sessions, then it would be unusual. But I don’t think there’s evidence of anything unusual yet.”

A Taiwanese security official told AFP that Beijing may be trying to “create a false impression that China is easing its threats against Taiwan in order to deceive the US into reducing its support for Taiwan’s security”.

The US does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but Washington is Taipei’s most important backer and biggest arms provider.

“We must not let our guard down,” the official said. AFP