South Korean President gets a reprieve for now as ruling party seeks to block impeachment

SEOUL - South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol looks set to hang on to office – at least for now – despite a disastrous stab at establishing martial law in the country, with his ruling People Power Party (PPP) rallying around him against the opposition’s efforts to impeach him.

That means that the motion to charge him with “violating the Constitution and the law”, to be held on Dec 7, may not get its required majority in the legislature to be passed.

Still, a legal guillotine – albeit politically motivated – continues to loom over Mr Yoon’s head, with the police now investigating him for treason over his botched attempt that

plunged the nation into chaos for six hours

on the night of Dec 3.

Mr Yoon has not been seen in public since the early hours of Dec 4, when he repealed the martial law decree, although he had been expected to make a national address on Dec 5 to apologise for the debacle. A presidential official said that Mr Yoon would not be making any public statements for that day, without offering reasons.

At any rate, the anticipated apology – while it would have mollified some – was not expected to significantly change the trajectory of his destiny.

The police complaints were filed by an opposition party and a group of activists on Dec 5 against Mr Yoon, former defence minister Kim Yong-hyun, who is said to have

masterminded the martial law move,

and the Army Chief of Staff, General Park An-su, who was briefly military commander during the ill-fated self-coup.

The trio are being accused of treason and other related charges for their roles in the short-lived martial rule on Dec 3.

If found guilty, Mr Yoon and the others accused of treason may be sentenced to life in prison, or even death, reported local media.

Mr Kim had resigned earlier on Dec 5 over his role in the midnight bungle, and has been slapped with a travel ban while

investigations are ongoing.

It is not clear how long the investigations will take.

In the political arena, Mr Yoon’s fate is similarly unclear, though analysts say they believe he could well survive.

While the opposition has made it clear that it is out for Mr Yoon’s blood, his ruling PPP – despite being blindsided by Mr Yoon’s martial law move – is now rallying around the beleaguered President.

PPP chief Han Dong-hoon, who was among the 18 ruling party lawmakers who had rushed to Parliament on Dec 3 to vote for the repeal of martial law, had been quick to denounce Mr Yoon’s action as “unconstitutional”, while calling for those responsible to be held accountable.

But a day later, as he chaired his party’s meeting, Mr Han softened his stance, vowing to unite his party in blocking the impeachment motion, to “prevent harm from unprepared chaos to the public and PPP supporters”.

The impeachment motion requires a two-thirds majority to pass the 300-member Parliament. 

This means that the opposition bloc, with 192 seats, will need at least eight PPP lawmakers to defect and back their Bill for Mr Yoon to be impeached.

Adamant about pushing the motion through, the dominant opposition Democratic Party (DP) has urged ruling party lawmakers to “act according to one’s conscience, not political interests”.

The six-party opposition coalition is also rallying citizens to join it for a massive protest in central Seoul on Dec 7, before the lawmakers proceed to the National Assembly to vote on the motion that evening at 7pm. 

The chances of the ruling party lawmakers defecting to the opposition are quite slim, even though they might have been bitterly disappointed with Mr Yoon’s actions, said Kyonggi University’s professor of political science and law Hahm Sung-deuk.

“The conservatives are really afraid of losing power, in particular to opposition leader Lee Jae-myung. So, for now, they will still back Mr Yoon,” he told The Straits Times.

The conservatives can ill afford to have two presidents from their parties impeached in a row. 

Conservative President Park Geun-hye of the Saenuri Party, who was elected in February 2013, was impeached and ousted in March 2017 on charges related to influence-peddling by her top aide Choi Soon-sil.

More than half of the lawmakers from her party had voted in favour of the impeachment then.

The liberal DP’s Moon Jae-in won the 2017 presidential election, and the conservatives barely managed to wrestle back power in 2022 when Mr Yoon won the presidential race with a very slim margin against the DP’s Mr Lee. 

Describing the impeachment of Ms Park as a “tragic memory” for the conservatives, Prof Hahm believed they would do all they could to block Mr Yoon’s impeachment this time round, in order to buy time to plan their next moves. 

If Mr Yoon resigns or is impeached and ousted, a snap presidential election that must take place within 60 days will likely see Mr Lee victorious. 

PPP chief Han, who is himself eyeing the next presidential race due in 2027, will not want to bear the cross of being a traitor by agreeing to the impeachment, said Prof Hahm.

Mr Han, who was Mr Yoon’s colleague when they were both prosecutors, was briefly appointed as justice minister in 2022 by Mr Yoon before stepping down in December 2023 to lead the PPP in the April 2024 general election. 

The pair fell out in early 2024 over First Lady Kim Keon Hee’s luxury bag scandal. 

Mr Han, who met Mr Yoon with other party members on the evening of Dec 4 to discuss the next steps, told reporters after the meeting that he had asked Mr Yoon to leave the party. 

While leaving the party technically does not affect Mr Yoon’s presidency, it will mean his losing the party’s protection for a second round of impeachment, which the opposition will likely gun for if this one fails. 

With PPP’s protection not likely lasting beyond the first round of impeachment, the best exit option for Mr Yoon is to resign, said Prof Hahm.

But as demonstrated by his drastic move to enforce martial rule in a misguided bid to consolidate power after months of hobbling along in a lame duck presidency, Mr Yoon is unlikely to give up easily.

Kyung Hee University’s political science professor Ahn Byong-jin suggested that there could still be a chance for Mr Yoon to change his political fate. 

If the first impeachment is successful, it needs to be approved by the nine-member council of the Korean Constitutional Court.

Pointing out that the council is made up of judges appointed by President Yoon, Prof Ahn thought that the possibility of the court rejecting the impeachment could not be ruled out. 

Mr Yoon could also possibly play the “fatigue” game, banking on a prolonged deadlocked situation for public anger to subside, before leaving on his own terms.

“These ideas may sound unthinkable, but whatever happened that night was already unthinkable, so you have to consider the unthinkable!” Prof Ahn told ST.

Other analysts were less optimistic. 

Dr Bong Young-shik of Yonsei University in Seoul thought that Mr Yoon could not avoid stepping down from power, as the opposition would likely ramp up more pressure by going after his wife. 

He believed Mr Yoon made the call to declare martial rule in an attempt to block the opposition’s impeachment of the state auditor and three top prosecutors over scandals surrounding the First Lady.

“The impeachment process will likely unearth dirty, ugly stories that Mr Yoon is trying to block,” said Dr Bong.

The motion to impeach the officials was passed by the opposition-led National Assembly on Dec 5. 

To Dr Lee Seong-Hyon, senior fellow at the US-based George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, the game is likely over for Mr Yoon. 

He said: “Mr Yoon’s approval ratings were already languishing at around 20 per cent before the martial law debacle, and they are bound to sink further.

“Governing effectively will be impossible, given his shattered credibility at home and abroad.”