Ruling LDP to decide on Sept 20 if Shinzo Abe becomes Japan's longest-serving prime minister

TOKYO - Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) announced on Tuesday (Aug 21) it will have a leadership vote on Sept 20 in what is shaping up to be a two-horse race between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and former defence chief Shigeru Ishiba.

Mr Abe's three-year tenure as party chief expires next month (Sept).

He has been LDP president and the Prime Minister since 2012 and the party extended a term limit for the leader from two consecutive terms to three last year.

A win in the party ballot next month will make him Japan's longest-serving prime minister, paving the way for him to not only oversee the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games but pursue his long-cherished goal of updating the pacifist Constitution for the first time since it was enacted in 1947.

LDP cadres will be voting for the first time in six years for a party leader, after a walkover in 2015. Nomination Day has been set for Sept 7, the same day campaigning will formally begin.

This year's vote will likely be a rematch of the 2012 election, which Mr Abe ultimately triumphed given his strong backing among parliamentarians. But Mr Ishiba put up a strong fight as he has robust support from local and regional LDP chapters.

The likelihood of a third candidate in the leadership race appears dim after Internal Affairs Minister Seiko Noda, who has said she wants to run, is reported to be having difficulty securing the 20 backers she needs to be nominated in the first place.

Mr Abe, 63, who is on summer vacation, told reporters during a round of golf on Tuesday that he is working to improve his mental and physical condition "day by day". He is likely to officially announce his candidacy next week.

While the odds are stacked against him, Mr Ishiba, 61, said on Tuesday that not having a contest will undermine the democracy of Japan. He added that the LDP needs to clearly debate its way forward on such issues as constitutional revision, economy and governance.

Analysts told The Straits Times that this year's election will likely not be so much about who wins - given that five of the LDP's seven intraparty factions have already thrown their weight behind Mr Abe - but by how big a margin he does.

The outcome could yet be influenced if lawmakers like the popular political blueblood Shinjiro Koizumi, who voted for Mr Ishiba in 2012 and does not belong to any party faction, announces his support for a candidate.

Both Mr Abe and Mr Ishiba favour revising the pacifist Constitution, but differ on when and how to do so. Mr Abe wants to insert a clause to explicitly spell out the mandate of the Self-Defence Force (SDF), which Mr Ishiba has dismissed as cosmetic. Mr Ishiba has urged caution, saying the LDP should not be rushing to amend the charter although he favours a more drastic rewrite.

Mr Ishiba, emphasising honesty and fairness when announcing his candidacy earlier this month, also said that he will launch a 100-day plan to reform the government - alluding to Mr Abe's cronyism scandals which have hurt public trust in his administration.

A public opinion poll by the All-Nippon News Network at the weekend showed more respondents favouring Mr Ishiba as the next prime minister. But Mr Abe is nonetheless expected to win as this is an internal party vote.

Dr Jeffrey Kingston of Temple University Japan said that there is "virtually no risk" for Mr Abe to lose as it is widely seen in the LDP that there is "no alternative".

"Abe has survived a series of scandals, any one of which would have brought down previous prime ministers, so it seems inconceivable that he will lose this race," he said. "Abe has been very astute at playing into party politics and balancing factional interests".

But Dr Koichi Nakano of Sophia University cautioned that it may be a "pyrrhic victory".

While Mr Abe will be hoping that a big win can stabilise his administration and regain the public's trust, Dr Nakano said: "If there is no boost in public support for the Cabinet after his re-election, it will be very damaging for the LDP as Abe completely controls the party but the public still seem fed up with him."