North Korean leader Kim’s China trip shows shifting dynamics in nuclear diplomacy

SEOUL – Just days after US President Donald Trump said he would like to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Pyongyang responded in its own way, by announcing Mr Kim’s trip to join Russian President Vladimir Putin at China’s military parade.

Mr Kim’s attendance at the Sept 3 Victory Day celebrations, standing alongside some of the world’s most powerful leaders, will send a clear message to the US and its allies that the country is no longer the same North Korea they faced years ago when Mr Trump and Mr Kim met in person for nuclear talks.

For Mr Kim, the visit will mark his debut on a multilateral diplomatic stage since taking power 14 years ago, underscoring his confidence backed by the burgeoning partnership with Russia and his growing nuclear arsenal.

The last time a North Korean leader appeared at a military parade in China was in 1959. 

“Xi will see this as an opportunity to re-engage with Kim after an extended period of arm’s length treatment,” said Dr Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

“Xi may be more gracious than usual with Kim for this purpose,” Dr Cha said, adding that such a gesture would put Mr Kim in a position of “two powers vying for his favour”. 

Mr Kim has emerged as a key ally of Mr Putin and his war against Ukraine, helping boost Moscow’s fighting presence on the ground by providing troops.

The alliance has also triggered concerns over North Korea’s increased ability to strengthen its military and sustain its regime through Russian backing.

Speaking alongside Mr Trump this week, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said that North Korea has been accelerating its nuclear capabilities in the past years, as he urged the US President to engage with Pyongyang.

“The only person that can make progress on this issue is you, Mr President,” Mr Lee told Mr Trump during their first summit meeting on Aug 25.  

North Korea has been dismissing any efforts by Mr Lee to improve ties between the two Koreas, but kept the door slightly open for dialogue with the US, saying that the personal relationship between Mr Trump and Mr Kim is “not bad”. 

Still, after the disappointment experienced when negotiations with the US collapsed in 2019, Mr Kim is less likely to move towards engagement when US concessions are unclear.

North Korea lambasted Mr Lee on Aug 27 after he urged efforts to denuclearise the Korean peninsula, calling the idea a “naive dream”.  

South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said it hoped relations between North Korea and China would develop in a way that contributes to the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.

Amid concerns Seoul could be sidelined in regional diplomacy with Pyongyang – potentially undermining South Korea’s security interests – the ministry said that it was aware of Mr Kim’s plan to visit China before the announcement.

“While history suggests that such visits often precede renewed engagement with the US, this visit seems to serve less as a prelude to dialogue than a signal that Kim can rally powerful partners and force Washington to play on his terms,” Bloomberg Economics’ Mr Adam Farrar and Mr Hyosung Kwon said, referring to recent remarks by Mr Trump and Mr Lee signalling openness to dialogue. 

“In the end, it’s North Korean leader Kim Jong Un – not either president – who will decide whether to rejoin talks.” BLOOMBERG