New poll finds Japan's ruling LDP likely to keep majority in election

TOKYO (BLOOMBERG) - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to keep substantially more than half the seats in Parliament in this weekend's general election, according to a media poll.

The survey by the Asahi newspaper, published late on Monday (Oct 25), was the latest in a series of conflicting data, including another poll published by broadcaster FNN earlier the same day that found the LDP was in danger of losing its outright majority in Parliament for the first time in 12 years.

Mr Kishida's ruling coalition is expected to remain in control of the government, but a major loss of seats for the LDP could weaken the new leader's grip over the party and increase the chances of him joining a long list of short-serving premiers.

Almost 50 per cent of respondents to a Bloomberg poll of economists said Mr Kishida might be pressured to produce a bigger stimulus package if his party fares badly in the election. He has already pledged tens of trillions of yen. The Bank of Japan is seen as standing pat on stimulus at its meeting this week, the poll found.

The Asahi survey also found that the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party is likely to stay mostly flat at 109. The newspaper polled about 354,000 people from Oct 23 to 24.

There are five days to go to the Oct 31 vote that determines if Mr Kishida can keep enough seats to maintain the outright majority the LDP has held for 12 years.

When Parliament was dissolved for the election, the LDP held 276 seats. If the party slips below the 233 simple majority in the 465-seat Lower House, it is expected to stay in power but would need the help of junior coalition partner Komeito, which held 29 seats.

The main parties are the LDP, which has ruled the country for all but about four of the last 66 years, and Komeito, which has been in coalition with the LDP most of the time since 1999. Backed by a Buddhist group, Komeito boasts a powerful machine to turn out the vote

The Constitutional Democratic Party holds about 75 per cent of the opposition seats and is trying to build its numbers with pledges to raise the minimum wage and show it can be trusted to run the government again after its predecessor was sent packing in 2012 following a series of policy U-turns.

Other opposition parties include the Japan Communist Party, which held 12 seats in the Lower House; Ishin, a metro-based group with 11 seats; and the Democratic Party of the People, with 10.

Independents held 10 seats and there were four vacancies.