New centrist opposition a wild card in Japan Prime Minister’s election gambit

TOKYO - Japan’s new centrist party,

formed shortly ahead of a snap general election

, is seeking to derail Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s hopes of securing the political capital needed to enact her controversial policy agenda, opening the way for further consolidation within the long-fractured opposition.

The Centrist Reform Alliance is poised to rely heavily on organisational muscle in the Feb 8 election, a common asset of the two parties behind the union.

The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) can marshal the support of labour unions, and the Komeito party is able to wield the significant mobilising power of its lay-Buddhist backer Soka Gakkai.

The unlikely allies have a chance of becoming a viable alternative to the conservative ruling coalition and delivering a hung Parliament, political analysts say, if the new centrist party can expand its support base with its pledge to put “people first” and end the “rightward” shift under national security hawk Takaichi.

That, however, will hinge on whether the centrist alliance can counter criticism that it is a marriage of convenience solely for the election.

Detractors point out that the new alliance has papered over major policy differences, particularly on defence.

The parties also need to appease their traditional voters who may have become disgruntled or unconvinced about the tie-up, according to the experts.

“To create a centrist wave, we will cross the country speaking up for people first and pacifism,” former Japanese prime minister Yoshihiko Noda, the CDPJ’s former leader who now serves as co-head of the centrist party, told his party on Jan 23.

Japan’s House of Representatives was dissolved for the election on Jan 23.

Japan has seen almost uninterrupted rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for most of the postwar period, with Komeito having played a critical part as a junior coalition partner over two decades until their sudden break-up in October 2025.

On the flip side, the opposition has been in near constant flux.

“This time, it’s a real fight between the LDP and the opposition,” said Professor Masato Kamikubo, who specialises in contemporary politics at Ritsumeikan University, as the new party has sprouted from Komeito and the CDPJ, which, until recently, had been “content as eternal onlookers”.

Until Ms Takaichi took the helm of the LDP, Komeito was safe as long as it stayed within the ruling coalition, relying on the LDP to address its policy demands in a “petition-style”, Prof Kamikubo added.

The CDPJ and Komeito moved to unite in the Lower House as reports emerged that Ms Takaichi, riding on relatively high popularity, was considering calling a vote in hopes of boosting her razor-thin majority in the 465-member Chamber with new coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP).

Komeito and the CDPJ held some 170 combined Lower House seats at the time of its dissolution.

The loss of Komeito support, and particularly its ability to mobilise between 10,000 and 20,000 votes through its Soka Gakkai base in each constituency, will provide an electoral drag on the LDP, though it remains to be seen how much of that Komeito support will shift to the centrist alliance.

According to a Kyodo News simulation based on voting behaviour in the previous Lower House election in 2024, the LDP – led by then Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba – without Komeito would have lost in 44 of the 88 single-seat districts it won after going head-to-head with the CDPJ.

Still, Prof Toru Yoshida, a political science professor at Doshisha University in Kyoto, is sceptical that allegiances would switch wholesale, even though the new party’s tilt to a more “realist” policy, such as in defence, could help it make inroads with moderate ruling party voters.

“The election will test which is more effective: the old model of organisation-led voting behaviours or the newer approach of support from non-affiliates who have turned to more populist parties in recent elections,” Prof Yoshida said.

According to a weekend Kyodo News poll, 67 per cent of respondents are not hopeful about the prospects of the new centrist party, compared with 28 per cent who are.

The LDP remained the preferred choice in voting for the proportional representation part of the election, though relatively high approval ratings for Ms Takaichi have not translated to a strong recovery in overall support for the recently scandal-ridden party, it showed.

While the LDP and JIP look set to woo conservative voters by highlighting the need to bolster Japan’s defence, the Centrist Reform Alliance remains wedded to the nation’s “exclusively defence-oriented” posture of the postwar era.

In aligning with Komeito, however, the CDPJ has had to cross what used to be a red line by accepting a 2014 reinterpretation of the war-renouncing Constitution that allows Japan the limited use of collective self-defence, in cases where Japan’s survival is threatened.

Komeito backed the policy with the LDP during the government of then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose hawkish stances on security are shared by Ms Takaichi.

Mr Rintaro Nishimura, senior associate at business advisory firm the Asia Group, said Komeito and the CDPJ agreed to “shelve” the discussion on the sensitive issue for the election’s sake.

The about-face may be a harbinger of what is to come after the election, a situation in which more policy differences must be resolved to keep the party united.

Resolving these issues would also rob the ruling camp of rhetorical ammunition to use against the opposition. KYODO NEWS