Leading contenders who might replace South Korean President Yoon

SEOUL – A dramatic move by South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to impose martial law and his reversal hours later has immediately raised questions about the future of the deeply unpopular leader.

Mr Yoon has already faced calls from opposition politicians to stand down and he could be impeached by Parliament if he does not do so. The president’s term runs to 2027 but if he leaves office sooner, it would trigger an election to decide his successor.

Here is a look at three leading figures who may replace Mr Yoon if he is forced out or opts to quit:

Lee Jae-myung

Lee, the 60-year-old leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, narrowly lost to Mr Yoon Suk Yeol in the 2022 presidential election.

A landslide win for the Democratic Party in April parliamentary elections gave Lee a strong tailwind for another run for the presidency, but he is also facing the risk of being excluded from political life after a court convicted him of violating election laws in November.

Under Lee, the Democratic Party has been looking to increase taxes on wealthy individuals and the chaebol conglomerates that dominate the corporate landscape.

He is also an advocate of a universal basic income and has proposed a total of 13 trillion won (S$12.4 billion) in cash handouts to citizens as a way to revive the economy. 

Lee advocates a more conciliatory approach to relations with North Korea than Mr Yoon, which might align with President-elect Donald Trump if the incoming US leader seeks to revive summit diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

However, Lee is more cautious about taking a hard line on China and pursuing closer relations with Japan, which could make coordination among the US and its regional allies more challenging.

The Seoul Central District Court found Lee guilty of making false claims in 2021 while campaigning for the presidency and handed down a year-long jail term, suspended for two years. He has appealed against the ruling.

If the ruling is confirmed, he will lose his parliamentary seat and will not be eligible to run in the next presidential race. Under the country’s law, defendants sentenced to a fine of one million won or more for an election crime cannot run for public office for five years. 

Lee’s career has been overshadowed by scandals in his personal life, a stabbing attack on him in January 2024, and a probe into alleged land speculation in Seongnam, a city where he served as mayor. He has denied any wrongdoing and called the legal proceedings against him politically motivated.

Han Dong-hoon

The leader of Mr Yoon’s ruling People Power Party, Mr Han moved quickly to reject the President’s decision to impose martial law. “I will stop this along with the people,” he wrote in a Facebook post soon after Mr Yoon’s announcement.

Opinion polls show Mr Han would be one of the most popular choices to replace Mr Yoon in the scheduled presidential election in 2027. The 51-year-old worked with Mr Yoon as prosecutors before they both moved into politics and Mr Han became Mr Yoon’s first justice minister.

If he were to become president, Mr Han would likely represent policy consistency with the Yoon administration, including a business-friendly approach, a tough line on North Korea, and an emphasis on close ties with the US and other allies, including Japan.

The rising star of conservative politics in South Korea has sought to represent a new generation of politicians who want to reduce privileges and benefits for lawmakers.

Mr Han is best known for playing a central role in investigating and securing the convictions of two former conservative presidents, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye.

Cho Kuk

Mr Cho, an arch-enemy of Mr Yoon, would be a wild card to replace the current president. Mr Cho leads the minor left-leaning Rebuilding Korea Party and was a senior presidential secretary during the administration of President Moon Jae-in.

Mr Cho helped hire Mr Yoon as the nation’s top prosecutor in 2019, but Mr Yoon then pushed for Mr Cho to be investigated over allegations that he and his wife fabricated academic documents to get their daughter admitted to a medical school. The couple were convicted and Mr Cho lost his job as a university professor.

He has since re-emerged as a political leader determined to bring down Mr Yoon, but a pending Supreme Court decision on whether to uphold his earlier conviction could bar him from politics until the next presidential election.

The policy platform of the Rebuilding Korea Party is similar to that of Lee’s Democratic Party, including calls for an expanded social safety net and a bigger government role in the economy.

Mr Cho would also likely pursue an approach of dialogue with North Korea, and scepticism towards coordinated pressure on Pyongyang with allies like Japan. Bloomberg