SEOUL – Mr Kim Jong Un in 2022 fired off missiles at a record pace, lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons and thumbed his nose at global sanctions. He’s likely to turn up the heat even more in the coming year.

Mr Kim is expected to outline his plans for 2023 this week, as his ruling Workers’ Party wraps up a major year-end policy-setting meeting.

He said during the gathering that he would strengthen the military, but details would not be known until state media publishes a report of the meeting.

With little threat of new sanctions and plans already afoot to further develop weapons, including drones, submarines and missiles, Mr Kim will likely look to continue honing his ability to deliver a credible nuclear strike against the United States and its allies.

Mr Kim’s actions in recent months indicate a broader shift away from Pyongyang’s long-term goal of normalising ties with Washington as a buffer against China and Russia, said Ms Rachel Minyoung Lee, who worked as an analyst for the CIA’s Open Source Enterprise for almost two decades.

That means more policies designed to cope with a prolonged period of hardship, rather than exploring diplomatic overtures, she added.

“Based on North Korea’s official pronouncements and media rhetoric since the beginning of the year, as well as its military actions in recent months, it seems unlikely the country will return to the negotiating table in the near term,” Ms Lee said.

Mr Kim’s regime has defied United Nations resolutions by firing off 70 ballistic missiles so far in 2022, nearly three times more than any other year since he took power a decade ago.

That has helped build a modern missile arsenal with solid-fuel rockets that are easier to hide, quicker to deploy and designed to evade US defences in the region.

Mr Kim is betting that will help deter another confrontation with the US like in 2017, when then President Donald Trump threatened “fire and fury” in response to North Korea’s weapons tests and American officials talked of a “bloody nose” strike on North Korea.

Nuclear test

Mr Kim also appears ready to conduct his first nuclear test since 2017 as he seeks to miniaturise warheads for tactical weapons to strike South Korea and Japan, which host the bulk of US troops in Asia.

An atomic detonation could also help increase the strength of a warhead he could attach to an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the American mainland.

“Disarmament talks don’t fit into the development trends we are seeing,” said Mr David Schmerler, a senior research associate at the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies with the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

The US, South Korea and Japan have pledged a stern, coordinated punishment if Mr Kim tests a nuclear weapon. But years of sanctions and isolation have failed to get Mr Kim to change course.

Now, there is almost no chance Russia or China, which have veto power at the United Nations Security Council, would support any new measures against North Korea as they did back in 2017.

“Pyongyang doesn’t see any chance or need of improvement in relations with the US or South Korea at this point, so they are ratcheting up tensions to create a pretext to conduct their seventh nuclear test,” said Mr Lee Sang-keun, director of strategic research at Seoul-based Institute for National Security Strategy. BLOOMBERG