Move to dissolve Johor assembly signals BN confidence in retaining supermajority: Analysts

KUALA LUMPUR – The Johor state assembly has been dissolved, paving the way for the state’s 16th election to be held by July 31.

Johor Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi announced the decision on June 1 during a hastily convened press conference in Johor Bahru, saying that Johor Regent Tunku Ismail Sultan Ibrahim consented to his request to dissolve the state assembly. 

“The dissolution is intended to pave the way for the democratic process through the Johor state election, subject to the Election Commission’s announcement,” he was quoted as saying by national news agency Bernama.

A state election must now be held within the next 60 days. This is earlier than expected, as the state assembly was originally scheduled to meet on June 22 to discuss issues that could include the next election. 

Analysts say Onn’s decision reflects the ruling Barisan Nasional’s (BN) confidence in retaining its supermajority of 40 out of 56 seats in the state assembly. The move could also deepen tensions between BN and its federal coalition partner, Pakatan Harapan (PH). 

Their relationship at the federal level is already strained. BN appears to be at the peak of its political strength, while PH is at its weakest. 

PH held 12 seats in the assembly, compared with three by Perikatan Nasional, and one by the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance.

BN has vowed to contest all 56 Johor state seats independently, despite being PH’s partner in the federal government. In response, PH has reportedly threatened to dissolve the Negeri Sembilan state assembly, where it lost its majority after BN withdrew its support in April 2026.

Since early 2025, UMNO – the leading party in BN – has been boosted by the return of prominent leaders such as former youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin, vice-president Hishammuddin Hussein and former minister Syed Hamid Albar, which strengthened its appeal among Malay voters. The latter two are Johor-based leaders.

In contrast, PH has been facing an exodus of core supporters, particularly urban progressives and non-Muslims, due to a series of issues related to integrity, race and religion.

Among these are criticism over pig farming in Selangor and disputes over unlicensed Hindu temples.

Rubbing salt into PH’s wounds was the surprise announcement by Skudai assemblywoman Marina Ibrahim, 38, that she would quit politics on May 31. The Chinese-majority Skudai has been a PH stronghold since 2008.

A rising star in the Democratic Action Party (DAP), a key component of PH, Marina reportedly declined offers from the state leadership to contest a different seat, as well as a proposal to head a statutory body should she lose the election.

The first-term assemblywoman is widely regarded as an effective grassroots leader in addressing constituency issues, even earning praise from political opponents.

In a comment that drew over 80 likes, supporter Asri Omar Omar wrote on Marina’s announcement on Facebook: “As an UMNO/BN supporter, I can’t believe it. I know how sincere you have been on the ground in helping people.”

Dr Phoon Wing Keong, head of the Chinese community think-tank Huayan Policy Institute, said UMNO is taking advantage of the internal dispute surrounding the Marina incident, while also limiting Prime Minister and PH chairman Anwar Ibrahim’s options to break ranks.

Phoon noted that PH is “on the defensive” as the state assembly was dissolved earlier than expected. 

“As Anwar seeks to push through a series of reforms in the June Parliament sitting, including a term limit for the prime minister, which requires UMNO’s support, it is unlikely that PH will call for a federal election,” he told The Straits Times.

Malaysia’s so-called unity government requires a two-thirds majority in Parliament to pass constitutional amendments, including a term limit for the prime minister. However, PH controls only 79 out of 222 seats, while BN holds 30, Gabungan Parti Sarawak 23, and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah five.

The government failed to secure the necessary support for a constitutional amendment in March 2026, falling short by just two votes.

Political analyst Adib Zalkapli said BN is entering the state election as a united force, while PH is grappling with internal divisions.

“They (BN) are very likely to retain the state government,” he told ST. “For PH, the bigger challenge lies with DAP, which must ensure that it remains the undisputed representative of the Chinese community. The party cannot afford a repeat of the 2025 Sabah state election, when DAP lost all the constituencies it contested.”