Japan’s ruling LDP extends lead ahead of Feb 8 election: Kyodo poll

TOKYO – Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, has extended its lead from last week in a Kyodo News poll on the proportional representation race ahead of the Feb 8 election, with 36.1 per cent backing the party, up 6.9 percentage points.

The Centrist Reform Alliance, a new major opposition force, was second with 13.9 per cent, up 2 points.

At the single-constituency level, the survey conducted over two days from Jan 31 showed that 44 per cent would vote for ruling camp-backed candidates in the House of Representatives election, while 26.5 per cent would back opposition rivals.

Those hoping the ruling bloc would win more seats than the opposition stood at 42.4 per cent.

The snap election was called in January as Ms Takaichi seeks to expand her months-old coalition government’s razor-thin majority in the powerful Lower House.

The election outlook remains uncertain, however, with 27.2 per cent saying they have yet to decide whom to vote for in constituencies and 21.3 per cent undecided on their choice for the proportional representation list.

The poll showed an approval rating of 63.6 per cent for Ms Takaichi’s Cabinet, up just 0.5 point from the previous survey in late January. The disapproval rate was also largely unchanged at 25.6 per cent, up 0.6 point.

Enthusiasm for the opposition Centrist Reform Alliance, a new party formed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the Komeito party, the LDP’s former governing coalition partner, was low, with 71 per cent saying they do not expect much from it, up 4 points.

The Centrist Reform Alliance is under pressure to prove it can unite voters from its founding parties, with co-leader Yoshihiko Noda telling reporters on Feb 1 he would bear a “heavy responsibility” if the new party fails to retain the seats its members are defending in the upcoming election.

In Japan’s Lower House election, voters cast two ballots – one for a candidate running in their local constituency, the other for a political party in the proportional representation list.

The Democratic Party for the People, a right-leaning minor opposition party once seen as a potential coalition partner of the LDP, was the third-most popular proportional vote choice at 5.7 per cent, down from 8.4 per cent, in a sign it may struggle to maintain its momentum from recent elections.

The populist Sanseito party, which surged in the summer 2025 House of Councillors election with its “Japanese First” platform, came in fourth with 5.6 per cent.

The LDP’s junior coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, was fifth with 5.4 per cent, overtaken by Sanseito.

Team Mirai, a new group advocating technological reforms to Japan’s political system, was sixth at 4.4 per cent. It aims to win its first seat in the Lower House.

The most important issue for voters continues to be measures to ease cost-of-living pressures, cited by 53.6 per cent with multiple answers allowed, as Japanese households face persistent inflation outpacing wages.

Social security, including pensions, was cited by 28.6 per cent, while 19.5 per cent cited diplomacy and national security.

Amid strong interest in economic support, major political parties, including the LDP and the Centrist Reform Alliance, have put forward proposals for cuts to the consumption tax on food.

The poll showed voters were split on the best approach, with 24.2 per cent saying it should not be reduced, 21.8 per cent saying it should be temporarily reduced on food, and 23.8 per cent saying it should be scrapped altogether.

A total of 487 randomly selected households with eligible voters and 2,922 mobile phone numbers were called for the survey, yielding responses from 425 household members and 623 mobile phone users. KYODO NEWS