Japan PM Kishida’s ruling LDP ekes out four wins in five by-elections in closer-than-expected race

TOKYO – Mr Shinji Yoshida, the man hand-picked by the late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s widow Akie to take over her husband’s electoral seat in their home-town constituency of the Yamaguchi fourth district, easily won in a by-election on Sunday.

But it was no cakewalk for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the other four parliamentary seats at stake,

with three narrow victories and one defeat.

While Mr Yoshida’s victory was called immediately, Mr Nobuchiyo Kishi – Mr Abe’s 31-year-old nephew – had to wait two hours before his win against the opposition-backed former justice minister Hideo Hiraoka, 69, was assured. The other LDP victories were called more than four hours after polls closed.

Sunday’s by-elections have been billed as a midterm assessment of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s leadership. Domestic media has fed into a rumour mill in overdrive that a convincing victory will give him cause to call a snap election way ahead of the due date of October 2025.

Yet a rebound in his Cabinet approval ratings – and even an apparent assassination attempt on April 15 – failed to translate into a clear-cut victory for the LDP.

Sophia University political scientist Koichi Nakano told The Straits Times that the razor-thin victory margins were “not a strong endorsement”, adding that he was most surprised that Mr Kishi’s victory “was not a foregone conclusion” despite the “political fiefdom”.

Mrs Abe had chosen Mr Yoshida, a 38-year-old former Yamaguchi local assembly member, to succeed her husband in a Lower House seat that he won 10 times and held from 1993 until his assassination in 2022.

The family history goes even further, with the district being formerly part of a constituency held by Mr Abe’s father Shintaro, a former foreign minister, almost continuously for 11 terms from 1958.

Mrs Abe, who frequently joined Mr Yoshida on the campaign trail, choked back tears after the win.

“I was filled with immense regret and sadness after my husband died,” she said, with Mr Yoshida by her side. “But Mr Yoshida has firmly inherited my husband’s will and spirit.”

The Yamaguchi second district, likewise a Lower House seat, was at stake after Mr Shinzo Abe’s brother, former defence minister Nobuo Kishi, resigned in February due to ill health.

His son Nobuchiyo Kishi had been tipped as a shoo-in to replace him, but it turned out to be a surprisingly close call. The baby-faced 31-year-old, who was a reporter before serving as his father’s secretary, will now bear the weight of the Abe-Kishi political dynasty on his shoulders.

Mr Nobuo Kishi is Mr Shinzo Abe’s brother by birth, but was adopted by the maternal family. He thus shares the same surname as post-war prime minister Nobusuke Kishi, who led from 1957 to 1960.

The Abes have no children. Mr Nobuchiyo Kishi, who has a brother and two cousins, is for now the only member of the Abe-Kishi bloodline in politics.

National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies political scientist Mikitaka Masuyama noted that Mr Kishi had courted criticism by drawing emphasis to his bloodline, with his family tree put up on his webpage, though this was later removed.

The LDP squeezed out narrow victories over the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) in both the Chiba fifth district seat and an Upper House seat in Oita.

The Chiba seat, which was vacated after the LDP MP quit over a political funding scandal, was won by an unorthodox candidate fielded by the ruling party in a nod towards diversity.

Ms Arfiya Eri, 34, who has an Uighur father and an Uzbek mother and became a Japanese citizen when she was 10 years old, came out tops in a tight race with the CDP’s Kentaro Yazaki, 55.

The LDP fielded bigwigs to campaign for her, thus helping her gain prominence and overcome perceptions of being effectively a golden parachute candidate. She was born in the south-western city of Kitakyushu and had faced an uphill battle as she has a weak support base in the eastern prefecture.

Dr Nakano said the CDP was in “real trouble” given Sunday’s defeats, which will raise questions over the appeal of the current party leadership.

The only race won by the opposition was in the Wakayama first district, where the LDP’s Hirofumi Kado, 57, lost to Ms Yumi Hayashi, 41, of the opposition Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party).

Nippon Ishin began as a regional party in Osaka, and has slowly been making inroads into national politics.