Japan LDP leadership race brings visits to controversial Yasukuni Shrine into spotlight

TOKYO - The leadership contest of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has brought the contentious issue of visits to the war-linked Yasukuni Shrine into the spotlight, with diplomatic experts warning of the potential for strain on ties with South Korea and China depending on who wins.

How Tokyo’s next leader handles the issue, with the shrine seen by Japan’s neighbours as a symbol of its past militarism, will be crucial to sustaining cooperation with South Korea amid growing security challenges from China and North Korea.

Three of the

five candidates in Oct 4’s LDP presidential election

visited the shrine on Aug 15, the 80th anniversary of Japan’s World War II defeat.

The shrine honours millions of war dead, including convicted war criminals.

Among them

were former internal affairs minister Sanae Takaichi and farm minister

who ranked first and second, respectively, in recent Kyodo News polls on the most suitable person to lead the LDP.

The next LDP chief is likely to also take over as Japan’s prime minister, although this is not guaranteed as the party’s coalition with junior partner Komeito lacks a majority in either chamber of parliament after crushing setbacks in national elections in the past year.

The Yasukuni Shrine has long been a source of diplomatic friction.

Former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, Mr Shinjiro’s father, visited the shrine every year from 2001 to 2006, angering countries such as South Korea and China.

But no sitting prime minister has visited Yasukuni since Dec 26, 2013, when Mr Shinzo Abe went there on the first anniversary of returning to office.

Mr Abe was

assassinated in 2022

during an election campaign rally.

Dr Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior research fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo, said any Yasukuni visit by a Japanese prime minister would deal a blow to efforts to bolster security ties with South Korea.

“Japan doesn’t want to miss this chance at a time when South Korea is seeking closer cooperation amid China’s gray-zone challenges” in nearby seas, he said.

Dr Watanabe sees at least four of the candidates as having no intention of visiting the shrine if they become prime minister, with the question mark hovering only over Ms Takaichi, who aims to become Japan’s first female premier.

In last week’s debate among the five LDP candidates, Ms Takaichi declined to say whether she would visit the shrine if elected, but said Japan must not allow other nations to make it a diplomatic issue.

If she becomes prime minister and decides not to visit, it could have a positive impact on Japan-South Korea relations, Dr Watanabe predicted, citing her hawkish security stance.

Mr Koizumi, 44, who could become Japan’s youngest post-war prime minister, has given no clear answer when asked if he would continue visiting the controversial shrine.

After Mr Ishiba announced in early September that he would

step down as LDP president

, South Korean media reported that ties between Seoul and Tokyo would likely deteriorate regardless of who becomes the next prime minister.

Even before becoming prime minister, Mr Ishiba was known for not visiting Yasukuni, as the two Asian countries have long been at odds over issues related to Japan’s colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula between 1910 and 1945.

Mr Ishiba travelled to Busan, South Korea, on Sept 30 to

meet President Lee Jae Myung

, hoping to underscore the importance of Tokyo-Seoul relations before his successor takes office. It is expected to be Mr Ishiba’s last overseas trip as premier.

Associate professor Li Hao, from the University of Tokyo’s Graduate Schools for Law and Politics, said it is important for Japan to have a leader who will not let historical issues hinder improving ties with China.

While Tokyo and Beijing face a range of bilateral issues, China has grown more assertive in its territorial claims.

A Yasukuni visit by Japan’s leader would have a “devastating effect”, Prof Li said, adding that South Korea and China, as victims of Japan’s wartime aggression, can never compromise on the “extremely sensitive” issue.

“Japan should be proud of having chosen the right path for 80 years since the end of the war, and I believe it has an obligation to tell China not to make the same mistake,” said Prof Li, also a research fellow for the Japan Institute of International Affairs.

Political analyst Norio Toyoshima, meanwhile, said Japan’s foreign policy toward South Korea and China will see little change after Mr Ishiba, as all five LDP hopefuls are certain to place emphasis on ties with the US. KYODO NEWS