In China, Harris is mostly seen as preferred to volatile Trump

BEIJING – While China is not enamoured with either US presidential candidate, conversations in Beijing indicate a clear preference for the continuity of Democrat Kamala Harris over the unpredictability of Republican Donald Trump.

US-China ties have stabilised over the past year, even as major divisions persist over issues including Taiwan, the South China Sea and US President Joe Biden’s export controls on advanced chips and other technology. A big part of that has been regular, low-profile talks between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.

Beijing sees the relationship with Washington as not great, but also better than a few years ago when all communication was cut after then US Speaker

Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan

and the Biden administration

shot down an alleged spy balloon flying over the US.

The discussions with Mr Sullivan, in places ranging from Vienna to Bangkok, have helped manage conflict between the US and China.

For China, a Harris presidency would allow President Xi Jinping’s government to build on that foundation and provide a somewhat stable external environment, as officials focus on reviving an economy beset by deflationary pressures stemming from efforts to cool an overheated property market.

One major risk to that strategy is Trump, who has threatened to impose tariffs of as high as 60 per cent on China – a level that would decimate trade between the world’s biggest economies.

“It’s a common view among Chinese experts that Harris means more continuity, at least in the first one or two years of her presidency,” said Ms Zhu Junwei, a former researcher in the People’s Liberation Army who is now director of American research at Grandview Institution in Beijing.

“Meanwhile, Trump means a wider scope of possibilities, better or worse, with lots of surprises and potentially more trouble for China, the US itself and its allies, and even the whole world.”

China does not want to be seen as trying to influence the election, and US officials say they have yet to see much worrying activity, even as they consistently warn Beijing not to meddle in the November presidential vote. Earlier in October, however, officials from the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence said China was looking to influence congressional races with candidates perceived to threaten its interests on issues like Taiwan.

When asked about remarks by Ms Harris or Trump at daily briefings held by the Foreign Ministry in Beijing, spokespeople regularly refuse to comment, while saying they oppose efforts to make China a campaign issue.

At a recent public lecture in Singapore, Dr Chen Dongxiao – president of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies and an adviser to China’s government – said that while views in China vary, there is consensus that “the second Trump administration would likely bring a greater uncertainty, instability and unpredictability compared with a Kamala Harris presidency”.

China’s eagerness to further improve ties with the US was evident when Mr Sullivan travelled to Beijing in August for talks with Mr Wang and Mr Xi. The question US officials heard over and over was: Why can’t we just be friends?

Mr Biden’s team left the more than 10 hours of meetings – some of them over a seven-course meal – with the impression that Beijing wanted to stabilise the relationship ahead of the US election. Few questions were asked about a potential Harris administration, and the US team did not want to preview what policies she would pursue.

But Mr Sullivan and his team emphasised that Ms Harris helped craft and execute the Indo-Pacific policies of the Biden administration, which has seen alliances in the region counter Beijing economically and in the national security space.

At a press briefing afterwards, Mr Sullivan pointed out that Ms Harris had previously met both Mr Xi and Premier Li Qiang, and she “shares President Biden’s view that responsibly managing this competition, so it doesn’t veer into conflict or confrontation, is essential”.

“They recognise that elections are sensitive periods and transitions are sensitive periods, and responsible management through an election and transition is important,” Mr Sullivan said of China. “That’s something we believe as well.”

‘Clear-eyed’

Ms Morgan Finkelstein, national security spokeswoman for the Harris campaign, said the Vice-President “is clear-eyed about the threats posed by China, and as president, she will ensure the US wins the competition for the 21st century”. 

“She will stand up against China’s efforts to undermine global stability and prosperity,” Ms Finkelstein said. “She will work closely with our allies and partners to take on these challenges while also investing in our own sources of strength.”

Chinese officials have seemed much more interested in Ms Harris’ policies and personnel after her September debate with Trump, a person familiar with the embassy’s engagement in Washington said.

It is still not clear exactly what Ms Harris would do on China policy, but during the debate, she blasted Trump for allowing the sale of advanced technology to Chinese firms and thanking Mr Xi during the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Still, she also criticised her opponent for starting a trade war and likened tariffs to a “Trump sales tax” that would raise prices across the board for middle-class families. That suggests she would avoid any destabilising moves to halt Chinese exports, one of the main pillars keeping China’s economy steady as consumption remains sluggish.

“China is salivating at the thought of taking advantage of Kamala’s weakness and ineptitude,” said Trump campaign senior adviser Brian Hughes. 

Assistant professor Rush Doshi from Georgetown University, who served as deputy senior director for China and Taiwan on the National Security Council from 2021 to 2024, said some people in China were asking Western officials and scholars whether Trump’s comments suggesting the US might not defend Taiwan may be giving Beijing a green light to use force against the island.

‘Frenzy mode’

“Beijing’s perspective depends on the timeframe,” Prof Doshi said. “They’re anxious Trump brings unpredictability over the short run but are more confident that he will accelerate American decline over the long run, in part by undercutting American alliances. In contrast, they see Harris continuing technology controls and alliance building that put Beijing at serious long-term disadvantage.”

For now, conversations in Beijing suggest a desire among President Xi’s government to continue with the more stable diplomatic relationship under Mr Biden over the past few years. 

“No one wants to ruin those efforts and choose the frenzy mode, at least from the Chinese perspective,” said Ms Zhu from Grandview, which regularly hosts dialogues with diplomats and visiting delegations from the US, Europe and other places.

“If someone says Trump is better because he will do more harm to the US and its allies, I think he must be joking.” Bloomberg

Correction note: In an earlier version of the story, Mr Xi Jinping was referred to as the US president instead of the Chinese president. This has been corrected.