How North Korea is giving Russia an edge in the war on Ukraine

Without the involvement of North Korea, Russia’s war in Ukraine might have taken a different turn. The infusion of weaponry and troops provided by Mr Kim Jong Un’s regime has helped Russia to repel Ukrainian forces from its soil and keep up the relentless bombardment of Ukrainian towns and cities.

North Korea has likely received military aid in return, increasing the threat posed by the isolated nation to the US and its allies in East Asia. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has long treated North Korea with ambivalence, maintaining relations while viewing Pyongyang as a potentially destabilising influence in Russia’s vast backyard. But the alliance they have struck up in recent years is proving to be an effective riposte to the sanctions imposed on both nations by Western powers. 

The partnership is deepening as a result, with North Korea now providing a significant proportion of the weapons being hurled at Ukrainian towns and cities. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has described the involvement of North Korean soldiers in thwarting a Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region as a symbol of “invincible brotherhood” between the two nations. 

What does Kim have that Putin wants? 

North Korea holds some of the largest stores of artillery shells and rockets that are compatible with the Soviet-era armaments that Russia has been burning through in Ukraine. North Korea is producing new weapons round the clock, and has been supplying as much as 40 per cent of Russia’s ammunition for the war, Mr Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian military intelligence, told Bloomberg News in an interview. 

North Korea is also one of the few countries with ample stocks of tanks similar to those that Moscow has deployed in Ukraine, such as the T-54 and T-62, meaning it could supply spare parts. And it has been busy churning out short-range ballistic missiles similar to some of the rockets Russia has used on Ukraine. 

South Korean officials estimate that as many as 15,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to fight in Russia, though estimates vary and some reports suggest that hundreds of them may have been killed. In June, top Putin security aide and former Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu said North Korea would send 5,000 military construction workers and 1,000 sappers to assist with the rebuilding of Kursk. 

What’s in it for North Korea?  

First off, North Korea gets a powerful military ally. When Mr Putin visited Mr Kim in Pyongyang in June 2024 – his first trip there in 24 years – the two reached a deal to come to each other’s defence if either was ever attacked.

Two North Korean destroyers, one of which was refloated after a failed launch attempt, are also believed to have been built with help from Russia, experts say. And Russia has helped North Korea upgrade its electronic warfare systems, including jamming equipment, a report showed. 

Russia’s support represents the biggest jolt to North Korea’s economy since Mr Kim took power after the death of his father in 2011. North Korea is one of the world’s most impoverished countries and desperately needs food, energy and raw materials, all of which Russia can supply. 

North Korea is set to receive around US$20 billion (S$25.7 billion) in cash or goods in return for its military assistance, according to an April estimate from the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses, which is funded by the South Korean government.

That would represent a massive boost for the North Korean economy, which had an estimated gross domestic product of about US$24.5 billion in 2022. The materials and cash from Russia help to keep Mr Kim in power by expanding his military, stabilising prices of consumer goods, and supporting the construction of new factories and housing. 

Furthermore, deploying troops to Ukraine gives North Korea an opportunity to test its military strategies and equipment against a combatant that uses weapons similar to those deployed by its foe, South Korea.

Since the Korean War wound down in 1953, North Korea has rarely sent its troops abroad. On the occasions when it has, it generally dispatched small forces – for example, when it sent an estimated 3,000 military personnel to Angola to take part in its civil war in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

Mr Kim’s regime sent about 800 military personnel and labourers to aid Syria’s government in 2019, according to Seoul-based specialist news service NK News, citing a United Nations document. North Korea also conducted limited flying missions during the Vietnam War to assist in the fight against US and South Vietnamese forces. 

Mr Charles Flynn, a former commander of US Army Pacific, has said that Russia’s use of North Korean missiles is giving Pyongyang a rare chance to test its weapons in combat and perhaps improve their performance. 

How could this go wrong for Pyongyang and Moscow?

No North Korean leader has ever faced a situation in which the country’s troops suffered mass casualties fighting in a war abroad. US officials said last December that around 1,000 North Korean soldiers had been killed or injured in the Kursk region, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky put the total at around 4,000 in early January, an estimate that has not been independently verified. 

One of North Korea’s guiding policies is putting the military first. The armed forces permeate almost all aspects of society. If North Korean losses in Ukraine were to mount, Mr Kim could face rare scrutiny by the military brass that underpins his authority. He would also risk stirring discontent among the country’s citizens, for whom it is the norm to have personal connections to the armed forces. 

In a sign of caution, North Korea acknowledged the deployment of soldiers to support Russia’s war on Ukraine only months after initial reports of the troops’ dispatch, saying the country’s military had helped Moscow retake control of the border region of Kursk. Mr Kim was later seen kneeling beside coffins of soldiers killed in the war in an apparent bid to highlight the sacrifice North Korea has made for Russia. 

Mr Kim’s budding friendship with Mr Putin may also irritate North Korea’s biggest traditional benefactor, China. Chinese President Xi Jinping has projected a neutral stance over the war in Ukraine, and the Kim-Putin partnership potentially undermines this position. Bloomberg