Fringe party Sanseito vows to put ‘Japan first’ to chip away at LDP rule

TOKYO – Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated the country for the last 70 years, losing control of the government only twice.

A five-year-old party cobbled together on social media during the Covid-19 pandemic is trying to weaken that grip on power by tapping into voter frustrations and anti-foreigner sentiment.

The party, Sanseito, is gaining traction in the polls and is focused on peeling away current LDP voters in the upper house election on July 20.

Led by Mr Sohei Kamiya, a former high school teacher, it advocates for restrictions on immigration as well as laws against foreigners buying Japanese companies or land.

Sanseito promises to cut taxes, protect rice farmers, boost the country’s birth rate and curb the use of pesticides.

With the election slogan of “Japanese First” and promises to make people rich, the party’s stance echoes that of US President Donald Trump.

Sanseito is capitalising on voter dissatisfaction driven by the surging cost of food and rent.

It is also explicitly appealing to conservative voters who have been alienated by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba cooperating with centrist parties after the LDP lost its majority in the Lower House.

“The support base consists of people who feel they have been sidelined since the Covid-19 pandemic and inflation,” said Professor Toru Yoshida, a professor of political science at Doshisha University.

“This includes the bedrock conservative voters who became disillusioned as society shifted towards liberalism, those who became distrustful of established political parties and stopped voting, and vulnerable young male demographics,” he said.

The LDP and its coalition partner Komeito have a majority of 141 of the chamber’s 248 seats.

Only 66 of those seats will be contested, meaning the coalition can afford to lose as many as 16 seats and still retain control. A compilation of recent polls gives Sanseito a chance of winning between eight and 17 seats.  

Compared to polls from earlier in the campaign period, the ruling coalition has lost steam and could miss its target of winning 50 seats in the election, according to multiple polls conducted by local media. Polls by the Asahi newspaper said the LDP looked likely to win some 34 seats, while Komeito looked likely to secure about nine. Kyodo also said that the LDP could struggle to win 40 seats. 

The largest opposition force, the Constitutional Democratic Party, is seen winning between 22 and 32 seats.

The Democratic Party for the People could pick up between 11 and 19 seats, the Japan Innovation Party could take between five and seven seats, while the Japanese Communist Party is forecast to get between three and six seats.  

The LDP and Komeito will almost certainly remain as the largest bloc in the Upper House under all polling scenarios.

The less powerful Upper House does not have the ability to choose the prime minister, so even if the ruling coalition loses its majority, the most likely scenario is that the ruling coalition will continue to run the country, provided a lower house election isn’t called.

Still, the coalition would be further weakened and in need of support from one or more of the opposition parties to make progress on policy. Sanseito is unlikely to be its first choice.

So for now at least, even if Sanseito does better than expected, its success would likely pose more of a threat to Mr Ishiba’s role as prime minister than the LDP as a whole. 

Its agenda could nevertheless sway the government’s agenda – Mr Ishiba’s administration in July announced the establishment of a secretariat to oversee policies relating to foreigners.

Mr Kamiya, who founded the party out of an online DIY political movement, has pointed to similarities on themes such as immigration between Sanseito and the Republicans in the US, Germany’s AfD and France’s National Rally.

Campaigning in the town of Kawaguchi on the outskirts of Tokyo, Sanseito deputy party leader Yuichiro Kawa backed local candidate Tsutomu Otsu, who promised to “do something about the foreigner problem”.

About 7.3 per cent of the town’s population are non-Japanese, including a sizable Kurdish community. The message resonated with supporters.

“I’ve consulted about noise issues caused by the foreign community with various political parties and even the police, but nobody has changed the situation,” said Mr Akihiro Nakada, 37, a long-time resident in the town.

“But I believe Sanseito may be able to actually take real action,” he said after Mr Otsu’s speech.

The party says it is not promoting discrimination against foreigners but rather is opposing “excessive acceptance of foreigners”. 

Mr Kamiya, the 47-year-old founder of the party, began his political career as a local LDP council member in Osaka.

After getting elected to Japan’s Upper House on the Sanseito ticket, he gained attention in 2022 by challenging the safety of Covid-19 vaccines and opposing mask mandates. 

The party’s YouTube channel has roughly 400,000 subscribers, compared with with around 140,000 for the LDP’s channel and 45,000 for the Constitutional Democratic Party.

In some recent polls, the party ranked among the top choices for voters who rely heavily on social media.

The party also promises to cut taxes and give parents 100,000 yen (S$870) a month per child until they turn 15.

Japan’s population has declined for the last 14 years, falling by 550,000 in 2024 with the percentage of children hitting a record low.

The decline was partially offset by an increase in the number of foreign-born residents.

The lower taxes and increased social spending promised by Sanseito would likely increase upward pressure on the country’s debt burden, already the highest among developed economies, with total debt projected to reach 235 per cent of gross domestic product in 2025.

Yields on Japanese government bonds have been rising amid concern about the country’s ability to finance its debt. 

At rallies, supporters dress in the party’s signature orange to pay homage to the country’s sun goddess who is also the progenitor of the Imperial family in Japanese mythology. 

While the party’s rhetoric has resonated with some voters feeling left behind by Japan’s more established parties, it has also brought a backlash.

Sanseito says some of its candidates have received death threats.

Protesters at a Sanseito rally in Tokyo held signs reading: “There is no such thing as first- and second-class humans.”

The party is also trying to win over rural voters, traditionally one of the most loyal voting blocs for the LDP.

It wants to make Japan completely self-sufficient in food by 2050.

Currently, the country imports about 50 per cent of its food. At the same time, it wants to promote organic framing and limit the use of chemical fertilizers.

“They present a bizarre mix of policies,” said Doshisha University’s Prof Yoshida. “There’s no clear connection among these policies, and it’s hard to place them ideologically, but each one resonates with some part of their support base.”

Mr Kamiya has given different answers as to whether Sanseito would enter into a coalition with the LDP.

In one interview, he expressed opposition to the idea, while in another, he said it would be up to the party’s members, not the leadership. However, he hopes the upcoming elections may set him up to be kingmaker.

“If Sanseito wins enough seats, we may hold the balance of power,” Mr Kamiya said in a campaign speech in Tokyo on July 4. Bloomberg