Don’t overestimate your abilities, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi tells Tokyo in stern warning

BEIJING – The future of China-Japan ties, which are at their lowest point in years, depends on the choices that Tokyo makes, said China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi on March 8.

Reserving his strongest words for Japan’s leaders at a press conference on the sidelines of China’s Two Sessions – the country’s annual meetings of lawmakers and political advisers – Mr Wang called on the Japanese people to “open their eyes” and “not allow anyone to overestimate their abilities and repeat past mistakes”.

At the wide-ranging briefing, Mr Wang also took questions on two hot-button issues in the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Tensions between China and Japan have simmered since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested in November 2025 that a Chinese use of force against self-governing Taiwan – which Beijing claims sovereignty over – would “constitute a situation that could threaten Japan’s survival” and, therefore, justify a military response by Tokyo.

Ties have remained strained after Ms Takaichi secured a landslide electoral victory in February, running on an agenda that includes plans to accelerate defence spending and revise Japan’s Constitution to formally recognise the country’s Self-Defence Forces as a military force.

Echoing his own comments at the Munich Security Conference in February, Mr Wang on March 8 again used Japan’s World War II past as a cudgel when asked about his expectations for China-Japan relations in 2026.

Noting that 2026 is the 80th anniversary of the start of the Tokyo Trial, where high-ranking Japanese leaders were prosecuted over atrocities committed during World War II, Mr Wang said history has, once again, given Japan a chance for self-reflection.

“A China that has developed and grown strong, and its 1.4 billion people, will never allow anyone to again advocate for colonialism or overturn the verdict on aggression,” he added.

The Foreign Minister also reiterated that the Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair and Japan has no right to interfere.

He said: “Considering that Japanese militarism once used the pretext of a ‘crisis of survival’ to launch aggression against other countries, it cannot but make the people of China and other Asian countries highly vigilant and worried: Where is Japan headed?”

Since their latest diplomatic row began in 2025, China and Japan have implemented a series of retaliatory measures. Both sides have warned their citizens against travelling to the other country, leading to thousands of flights being cancelled and Chinese arrivals to Japan plunging more than 60 per cent in January.

China has also put the squeeze on other parts of the Japanese economy, cutting off seafood imports and slowing rare earth exports. The latest escalation came in February when China’s Ministry of Commerce added 20 Japanese entities to its export control list, banning the shipment of goods with both civilian and military applications to these firms.

On the issue of Taiwan’s independence, Mr Wang did not answer directly a question on whether China has set a timeline and road map for cross-strait reunification. He said only that the historical process of reunifying China and Taiwan is “unstoppable”.

“Those who follow it will prosper, and those who oppose it will perish,” he added, pointing the finger at Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, saying its obstinate pursuit of a separatist agenda is the root cause of the disruption of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

Mr Chen Yang, director of the Japan Research Centre at the Haiyi Institute, a think-tank based in Beijing, said China’s previous diplomatic rhetoric on Japan often used vague phrases such as “joint efforts from both sides”. In contrast, Mr Wang’s latest comments reflect a firmer stance and China’s growing vigilance over Tokyo’s expanding security role in the Taiwan Strait.

The researcher also noted that while Ms Takaichi has emphasised her willingness to engage in dialogue, she has not expressed remorse over her Taiwan remarks.

“Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s statement today not only responded to Japan’s empty promise, but also clarified the fundamental principle for improving China-Japan relations,” he added.

Mr Chen said there could be increased friction in 2026 over commemorative activities, textbook disputes or security policies, given the Tokyo Trial anniversary and Japan’s advancement of its defence cooperation with the US.

“On the other hand, this also foreshadows a potential turning point. If the Takaichi government shows more restraint on historical issues, such as avoiding visits to the Yasukuni Shrine that honours convicted war criminals among others, or adjusting its statements on Taiwan, Sino-Japanese relations may see a window of improvement, especially in highly complementary economic fields,” he said.

On March 8, Mr Wang was also asked about the South China Sea and the prospects of China and ASEAN agreeing to a binding code of conduct in disputed waters.

To this, he said cooperation in the South China Sea has maintained positive momentum, noting that China has been discussing joint maritime development with Indonesia, held bilateral dialogues with Malaysia, and collaborated with Vietnam on sustainable fishing.

China claims maritime rights over nearly 80 per cent of the South China Sea, loosely delineated by a “nine-dash line” on Chinese maps. The area within the dashes overlaps with areas that some ASEAN countries claim as their territories or exclusive economic zones.

On the Philippines, which has been the most vocal opponent of China’s claims, Mr Wang said the China Coast Guard had recently rescued more than 10 distressed Philippine crew members in the South China Sea.

Ties between the Philippines and China sank to a new low in August 2025 when a Chinese coast guard vessel collided with a Chinese Navy ship while both vessels were chasing a Philippine boat out of disputed waters. Both sides have blamed each other for the collision.

The Philippines has committed to finalising the code of conduct for the South China Sea in 2026, when it assumes the rotating chairmanship of ASEAN.

ASEAN and China pledged in 2002 to create such a code, but they took 15 years to start discussions and progress has been slow.

Mr Wang said China has the “confidence and determination” to work with all parties to eliminate interference, seek common ground while resolving differences, and reach a consensus as soon as possible, adding that consultations have reached “crunch time”.

“We also hope that as this year’s ASEAN chair, the Philippines will recognise and fulfil its responsibility, resist the pull of self-interest, and play a positive role for peace and stability in the region,” he added.

Professor Fan Lei at China’s Charhar Institute, an international relations think-tank, said the task of completing consultations on the code of conduct within the year faces immense challenges despite strong political will across all parties.

This is because of persistent disagreements over whether the code should be legally binding, and if it applies to all disputed waters, particularly around Taiwan. Involvement by the US, which has strengthened military cooperation with the Philippines, further complicates the situation.

Prof Fan, an expert on China-ASEAN relations, also said that Mr Wang’s signal to the Philippines not to prioritise private gain over public duty comes amid concern that Manila may attempt to insert the 2016 arbitration ruling into the code – a move that China opposes.

In 2016, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ruled in favour of the Philippines, refuting China’s claims to a number of reefs and features.

“While (Mr Wang’s) phrasing sounds polite, the subtext is stern and carries a distinct warning,” Prof Fan said.

“If the Philippines fails to recognise its heavy responsibility and continues to stir up trouble, China will be forced to take more resolute countermeasures,” he added.