China goes on diplomatic offensive ahead of Trump 2.0

BEIJING - In Rio de Janeiro on Nov 18, world leaders who huddled for a Group of 20 summit group photo included Chinese President Xi Jinping and host Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, both of whom were in the front row.

Conspicuously missing was US President Joe Biden

– in his last major diplomatic trip before stepping down in January – who showed up late due to “logistical issues”, as a senior administration official later told reporters.

The “family photo” was retaken a day after, with Mr Biden included.

While whether Mr Biden’s initial absence was a sign of the US’ waning global influence was up to debate, what became clear was Mr Xi’s determination to use the week-long events in Brazil and Peru, for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit, to shore up China’s relations with key partners.

In 2023, Mr Xi had

skipped the September G-20 summit

held in New Delhi, with Premier Li Qiang attending instead. Mr Xi went to San Francisco in November for the Apec and US-China summits.

This time, as China readies itself for a more turbulent second Trump presidency, Mr Xi has clocked at least 15 top-level bilateral meetings with his counterparts, including those from Japan, Germany

and Singapore,

since he arrived in Lima on Nov 15.

In the light of the incoming Trump administration, widely expected to be tougher on China, China politics expert Scott Kennedy from the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies said he believes Beijing would push for a “much more assertive outreach” with other countries.

“China might actually put more substance behind this outreach, in terms of market access, industrial policy, its position on various security and diplomatic issues, and see if they can peel away countries from a tighter relationship with the US,” he said in Beijing recently.

In what appears to be a message aimed at Trump, Mr Xi outlined “four red lines” for the US-China relationship in his

Nov 17 meeting with Mr Biden

– “the Taiwan question, democracy and human rights, China’s path and system, and China’s right to development”.

In July 2020, Trump’s then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo

said in a speech

that “America can no longer ignore the fundamental political and ideological differences between our countries”, and called for inducing political change in China.

While Mr Biden has continued or added to Trump’s tariffs, as well as tightened exports of technology such as semiconductors to China since he took office in 2021, he has also been viewed by Beijing to have stabilised overall ties.

“The ‘Thucydides Trap’ is not a historical destiny, the ‘New Cold War’ cannot be fought or won, and containment of China is unwise, undesirable and will not succeed,” Mr Xi warned Mr Biden on Nov 16.

The Thucydides Trap is an analogy used by scholars

to discuss US-China relations,

as a rising power challenges a ruling one.

While signalling that China is prepared for a potentially worsening confrontation with Washington, Beijing has also in recent months tried to make headway on removing impediments to better ties with major countries.

In October, China and India

struck a deal to end a military stand-off along their border

that resulted in four years of frosty ties. New Delhi has said moving forward on the dispute was a precondition for better ties.

In September, China said it would

begin lifting a ban on the import of Japanese seafood,

imposed in August 2023 over the release of treated water from the wrecked Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.

On China’s diplomatic offensive, Assistant Professor Benjamin Ho of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore said that regardless of what he thinks Trump plans to do, Mr Xi would want to market China to the West, simply because he needs western capital.

“I doubt that Xi would want to antagonise Trump unnecessarily so early in the game,” he added.

Deeper, more contentious issues remain unresolved.

In Mr Xi’s Nov 18 meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, journalists covering the event were asked to leave the room when Mr Starmer raised the issues of Taiwan and Hong Kong activist Jimmy Lai – the ex-media tycoon accused of masterminding pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Neither are significant Chinese concessions in the offing as yet.

In the Chinese President’s meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, the Japanese readout merely said both sides “confirmed their previous agreement on the resumption of imports of Japanese seafood” into China.

Even Australia, whose ties with China have been on the mend in the past two years after former prime minister Scott Morrison stepped down in 2022, is unlikely to give way on core Chinese demands.

In Rio de Janeiro, Mr Xi told Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese that he hoped for a more “mature, stable and fruitful” relationship, adding that “there is no fundamental conflict of interests between China and Australia”.

Mr Kevin Magee, an Australia-China relations expert at the University of Technology Sydney, said Mr Xi hopes to get better access to key parts of the Australian economy, including rare earths as well as science and technology cooperation.

But while relations are better now, there are still irritants, and there has been no move away from Australia’s commitment to the US alliance or Aukus, he said, referring to the trilateral security pact formed under Mr Biden in 2021 with the UK that has irked Beijing.

Mr Magee said: “Xi probably hopes that US allies such as Australia could influence the Trump administration to hold back on tariffs, including on China, given the tariffs would have a potential flow-on effect to Australia and other US allies.

“However, I am not sure whether this is feasible, as Australia will not wish to get caught in a dispute between the US – especially the Trump administration – and China.”

Professor Shi Yinhong of Renmin University in Beijing is doubtful whether Trump’s potential alienation of allies will provide China with diplomatic opportunities.

Trump has pledged to raise tariffs

across the board, as well as questioned whether more should be paid for US troops and equipment in Asia, raising concerns among allies in the region.

But Prof Shi, an international relations scholar, believes that such countries will still feel that their interests on major issues – from Taiwan, human rights, technology, and the South and East China seas – are more aligned with the US than with China.

“Efforts to improve relations with Europe, Japan and South Korea will be largely rhetorical without significant actions towards compromising on major issues,” he added.