China’s scorching heat poses summer test for electricity grid

BEIJING – A sizzling start to July is on the cards for China, where nationwide temperatures are poised to climb almost 3 deg C above historical averages in the first week of the month. 

That will pile pressure on electricity supplies as people crank up their air-conditioners, demand for which has nearly doubled in the past decade.

Swathes of eastern China, home to major population centres, including Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou, will see temperatures around 35 deg C to 39 deg C, with some places touching 40 deg C, according to a forecast from the China Meteorological Administration.

The region may face a “long-lasting high temperature war”, the state weather bureau said last week.

Key rice growing areas will also bake in the heat, threatening to damage the crop during a crucial development stage and risking lower output in one of the country’s top-producing regions.

As the mercury climbs, government officials will be feeling the heat in more ways than one: they must ensure stable power supplies even as demand spikes –

potentially to record levels

.

The National Energy Administration expects peak electricity demand to be about 100 gigawatts higher this summer than in 2024, the equivalent of needing to turn on all the power plants in Britain at once.

Preparations have been years in the making. After major blackouts struck China earlier this decade, the authorities built up a massive surplus of coal, the country’s mainstay fuel, amply supported by a world-beating roll-out of wind and solar power.

There are already indications that the authorities are gearing up for a sweltering few days. Last week, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s top economic planning agency, took pains to emphasise the electricity grid’s readiness for soaring temperatures.

While the network is in better shape to take on peak summer demand in 2025, “extreme and continuous high temperatures” can tighten power supplies, said an NDRC spokesperson, who also warned that extreme events such as typhoons and floods can amplify threats to the grid.

Rains may bring some relief, although

heavy downpours – especially in the south-west,

where the ground is already saturated after recent drenching – could threaten inundations.

A broad band of precipitation is predicted to move through south-west, north and north-east China this week.

In Beijing, cooling, thundery rains are forecast in the first half of the week, although the humidity could make it feel hotter than the thermostat suggests.

For now, there is disagreement between major weather models on how long China’s heatwave will last.

Among those keeping a close watch will be coal traders: the benchmark price for thermal coal crept up from multi-year lows last week due to the sweltering conditions. BLOOMBERG