China’s population falls for third consecutive year
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China’s birth rates have been falling for decades as a result of its one-child policy and rapid urbanisation.
PHOTO: REUTERS
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BEIJING – China’s population fell for a third consecutive year in 2024, with the number of deaths outpacing a slight increase in births, and experts cautioning that the downturn will worsen in the coming years.
The National Bureau of Statistics said on Jan 17 that the total number of people in China dropped by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024, compared with 1.409 billion in 2023.
The data reinforces concerns that the world’s second-largest economy will struggle as the number of workers and consumers declines.
Rising costs from elderly care and retirement benefits are also likely to create additional strains for already indebted local governments.
China’s total number of births was 9.54 million versus 9.02 million in 2023, the statistics bureau said.
The birth rate rose to 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2024 versus 6.39 per 1,000 people in 2023.
The number of deaths was 10.93 million in 2024, from 11.1 million in 2023.
China’s birth rates have been falling for decades
As in neighbouring Japan and South Korea, large numbers of Chinese people have moved from rural farms to cities, where having children is more expensive.
The high cost of childcare and education, job uncertainty and a slowing economy have also discouraged many young Chinese from getting married and starting a family.
Gender discrimination and traditional expectations for women to take care of the home exacerbate the issue, demographers say.
“Much of China’s population decline is rooted in entrenched structural reasons. Without fundamental structural transformations – from enhancing the social safety net to eliminating gender discrimination – the trend of population decline cannot be reversed,” said Assistant Professor Yun Zhou from the University of Michigan.
A 12.4 per cent rise in marriages in 2023 – many delayed due to the Covid-19 pandemic – meant there was a temporary rebound in births in 2024, demographers said. The number is expected to fall again in 2025.
Marriages are a leading indicator for birth rates in China, where many single women cannot access child-raising benefits.
The authorities unveiled a series of measures in 2024 to boost China’s birth rate.
In December 2024, they urged colleges and universities to integrate marriage and “love education” into their curriculum to emphasise positive views on marriage, love, fertility and family.
In November 2024, the State Council, or Cabinet, rallied local governments to direct resources towards fixing China’s population crisis and to spread respect for childbearing and marriages “at the right age”.
The number of Chinese women of reproductive age, defined by the United Nations as 15 to 49, is set to drop by more than two-thirds to less than 100 million by the end of the century.
Meanwhile, the retirement-age population, or those aged 60 and over, is expected to increase to more than 400 million by 2035 from around 280 million people currently.
The state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences has said the pension system will run out of funds by 2035.
The number of people in China aged 60 and over reached 310.31 million, about 22 per cent of its population, up from 296.97 million in 2023.
The country’s urbanisation trend also gathered pace, with an increase of 10.83 million people living in urban areas to 943.3 million in total, while its rural population fell by 12.22 million to 464.78 million.
REUTERS
