China's economy grows at slowest pace in nearly 30 years

Sluggish domestic consumption, US trade war take their toll; officials say economy stabilising, but pressures remain

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China's economy grew at its slowest rate in nearly three decades, official data showed yesterday, as the effects of sluggish domestic consumption and a bruising trade war with the United States took their toll.

While officials say there are signs the economy is stabilising amid a partial trade deal with the US, several pressure points remain, including the punitive tariffs still on the books in the US on billions of dollars' worth of Chinese goods.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.1 per cent last year, its worst performance since 1990, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.

While the figure was in line with the 6 per cent to 6.5 per cent forecast by analysts, growth was down from 6.6 per cent in 2018. Total GDP last year was 99.08 trillion yuan (S$19.4 trillion).

The world's second-largest economy has been losing steam from the breakneck pace earlier last decade when it regularly posted double-digit growth rates. The economy expanded by 6.4 per cent in the first quarter of last year, dipping to 6.2 per cent in the second quarter and stabilising at 6 per cent in the third and fourth quarters.

China's economy has generally maintained a growth momentum, said NBS commissioner Ning Jizhe at a press conference to announce the figures.

Mr Ning spoke of more stimulus measures this year, saying domestic consumption would be the main economic driver.

"Even though it's just the start of the year, we can see it will be close to 60 per cent of our GDP," he said.

"However, we should also be aware that the global economic and trade growth are slowing down," Mr Ning said, adding there will be "mounting downward pressure".

The figures released yesterday had some positive retail sales and industrial output data. Services, especially those that deal with the high-tech industry, also grew while online retail sales hit 10.6 trillion yuan.

Agriculture continued to make headway - except in pork production, which fell by 21.3 per cent, largely because of the swine flu epidemic that swept across the country, forcing the culling of millions of pigs.

  • 6.1%

  • Growth of China's gross domestic product (GDP) last year, its worst performance since 1990. Its total GDP last year was 99.08 trillion yuan (S$19.4 trillion).

Analysts have warned that China's economic growth is likely to continue to slow, predicting that this year's GDP increase could be as low as 5.5 per cent.

Beijing has been relying on a mix of fiscal and monetary measures to weather the current downturn, including by cutting taxes and allowing local governments to sell huge amounts of bonds to fund infrastructure projects.

Banks also have been encouraged to lend more, especially to small firms, with new yuan loans hitting a record 16.81 trillion yuan last year.

The economy has been slow to respond, however, and investment growth has slid to record lows.

Yet there is still reason to be optimistic about the data, with many analysts expecting a fillip from the trade agreement with the US.

But others have been more circumspect about the newly inked deal.

The "phase one" trade agreement is much like stanching the bleeding of a wound, said Professor Cao Heping of Peking University's School of Economics.

He said the Chinese economy was now at a crossroads.

"For the wound to properly heal, it's going to take time. But who's to say that a new wound isn't going to appear during this time?" he said.

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on January 18, 2020, with the headline China's economy grows at slowest pace in nearly 30 years. Subscribe