China hits back at Trump tariff hike, US stands its ground

BEIJING/WARSAW/WASHINGTON - Beijing increased its tariffs on US imports to 125 per cent on April 11, hitting back against President Donald Trump’s decision to hike duties on Chinese goods and raising the stakes in a trade war that threatens to upend global supply chains.

US markets churned as China’s retaliation intensified global economic turmoil unleashed by Mr Trump’s tariffs. One US survey of consumers showed inflation fears have mounted to their highest since 1981.

“Recession risk is much, much higher now than it was a couple weeks ago,” said Mr Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson.

Foreign leaders have puzzled over how to respond to the biggest disruption to the world trade order in decades. Mr Trump’s administration has stuck to its guns, touting discussions on a number of trade deals it says will justify its dramatic upheaval in policy.

The tit-for-tat tariff increases by the US and China stand to make goods trade between the world’s two largest economies impossible, analysts say. That commerce was worth more than US$650 billion (S$858 billion) in 2024.

“The president made it very clear: When the United States is punched, he will punch back harder,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on April 11.

The dollar slid and a sell-off intensified in US government bonds, the world’s biggest bond market.

Gold, a safe haven for investors in times of crisis, scaled a record high.

With the dollar weakening, selling of US assets was perhaps most exemplified by the drop in prices of the US 10-year Treasury note, long considered among the world’s safest investments.

The decline drove its yield - which moves opposite to the price and is critical for determining things like interest rates on mortgages - up to a two-month high. On the week, its yield has climbed more than half a percentage point, the largest weekly increase in more than four decades.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is closely monitoring the bond market, Ms Leavitt said.

A second day of data on US inflation showed price pressures were not yet building broadly across the US economy, although the Producer Price Index for March did show industrial metals prices rising due to import levies on things like steel and aluminum, in place for a month now.

“Tarifflation will be much more important for the outlook than backward-looking data,” said Mr Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “If tariffs stay in place they will push inflation considerably higher in coming months.”

The University of Michigan said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 this month from a final reading of 57 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index falling to 54.5.

In a reversal of previous surveys, the latest one also showed weakening confidence among Mr Trump’s fellow Republicans.

Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations soared to 6.7 per cent this month, the highest reading since 1981, from 5 per cent in March, according to the survey.

Trade war with China

This week, Mr Trump announced

a 90-day tariff pause on dozens of countries

while ratcheting up tariffs on Chinese imports effectively to 145 per cent.

China retaliated with new tariffs on April 11. China’s finance ministry called Mr Trump’s tariffs “completely unilateral bullying and coercion.”

Beijing indicated this would be the last time it matched US tariff rises but left the door open for other types of retaliation.

“If the US truly wants to have talks, it should stop its capricious and destructive behaviour,” Mr Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in the US, wrote on social media. “China will never bow to maximum pressure of the US.”

UBS analysts in a note called China’s declaration “an acknowledgement that trade between the two countries has essentially been completely severed.”

Ms Leavitt, in turned, delivered a warning to Beijing.

“If China continues to retaliate, it’s not good for China,” she said at the White House briefing.

China court Spain, EU

On April 10, Mr Trump told reporters he thought the US could make a deal with China and he respected Chinese President Xi Jinping.

On April 11, Mr Xi made his first public remarks on Mr Trump’s tariffs, telling Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Beijing that China and the European Union should “jointly oppose unilateral acts of bullying.”

China has signed two agricultural trade protocols with Spain covering pork and cherries as it looks to mend its strained relationship with the EU, the last open major market for its products.

The Trump administration has shrugged off market turmoil, saying striking deals with other countries would bring certainty. Ms Levitt said more than 75 countries had reached out to the White House to seek negotiations.

India and the US have finalised terms of reference for talks over the first segment of a bilateral trade deal, an Indian trade official said.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has set up a trade task force that hopes to visit Washington next week.

Vietnam, hoping to avoid tariffs, is prepared to crack down on Chinese goods being shipped to the US via its territory, Reuters exclusively reported.

All this has done little to soothe business leaders’ worries about soaring costs, falling orders and snarled supply chains.

For European businesses in particular, a stronger euro automatically makes them less competitive in the global market.

The euro extended its rise on April 11, reaching its highest in over three years versus the dollar. REUTERS