China must gird up for ‘high winds and rough waves’, says top-level party conclave

BEIJING - In the next five years, China wants to make great strides in development that emphasises quality over quantity, scientific and technological self-reliance and in strengthening the national security shield, a top-level conclave of the Communist Party of China (CPC) has decided.

These goals for an upcoming socio-economic blueprint for 2026 to 2030 – the 15th Five Year Plan – comes as Beijing seeks to bolster its resilience amid an uncertain international outlook that is largely driven by

a trade war with the United States.

The communique of the Fourth Plenum that detailed this vision was issued on Oct 23, at

the end of the four-day, closed-door huddle

of 315 of China’s top leaders in Beijing.

These priorities provided little surprises for China watchers, as Beijing has for years signalled top-level emphasis on, for instance, advanced manufacturing, science and technology, and national security.

The meeting approved a “Suggestions” document for formulating the upcoming plan, said official news agency Xinhua.

The plan is slated to come into effect in early 2026, after it is passed by China’s Parliament.

In its analysis of the international outlook, the CPC said that for the period of the upcoming plan, China is in “a phase of development where strategic opportunities exist alongside risks and challenges, while uncertainties and unforeseen factors are rising”.

“We must maintain strategic resolve, strengthen our confidence of victory, and proactively recognise, respond to, and seek change. We must dare to and be skilled in struggle, bravely facing major tests, even those characterised by high winds and rough waves,” it said.

The 4,500-word statement did not name other countries, but the US and China are embroiled in trade and technology disputes, with the next round of bilateral talks slated for Oct 24 to 27 in Malaysia.

This is just ahead of

a yet-to-be-confirmed summit

between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference next week.

The Oct 23 communique stated seven major objectives for the period of the upcoming five-year plan, with the first three being for China to “achieve notable results in high-quality development”, “substantially enhance self-reliance and strength in science and technology”, and “make new breakthroughs in furthering comprehensive reform”.

China should also aim to “significantly raise the level of social civilisation”, “continuously improve the quality of people’s lives”, “make new and significant progress in building a Beautiful China”, and “further consolidate the national security shield”.

Achieving these aims will form the foundation for China’s longer-term goals, it said.

By 2035, China will have achieved “substantial leaps in its economic strength, scientific and technological capabilities, national defence capabilities, comprehensive national strength, and international influence”.

The CPC added that in the next five years, it will promote “effective improvement in the quality, and reasonable growth in the quantity of the economy”.

In its latest projection on Oct 14, the International Monetary Fund said China’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.2 per cent in 2026, from 4.8 per cent in 2025. China’s growth in the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.2 per cent.

Efforts to build China into a manufacturing, transport and cyber powerhouse must be accelerated, said the communique. Efforts should also be made to strengthen “original innovation”, as well as to “vigorously boost consumption”.

There were calls for other economic reforms. These include for “obstacles hindering the construction of a unified national market” to be removed and the “high quality development of the property market” to be advanced.

Mr Bo Zhengyuan, a partner at Plenum consultancy in Shanghai, expects China to double down on growing its tech sector in the next five years, given the latest recommendations.

He pointed to the term “keji zili ziqiang”, or tech self-reliance and self-strengthening, as having gained even more prominence, compared with the last plenum that focused on the five-year plan, in 2020.

China’s drive to grow its technology sector just “might be the single most important policy” in the new five-year plan, Mr Bo told ST.

He expects policymakers to roll out more measures to ensure that China grows its chipmaking capability to strive for self-sufficiency.

Dr Dan Wang, China director at consultancy Eurasia Group in Singapore, said that China appears to be aiming for 4.6 per cent annual growth until 2035, “which is a steep challenge and comes with major costs”.

“So far, there’s no indication of any real shift in strategy. It looks like resources will stay concentrated in high-tech and emerging sectors, while the demand side isn’t getting much of a boost,” she told ST.

Dr Wang added that without a large fiscal push to actually raise household incomes, such a goal appears to be more aspirational than backed by real financial support.

In his take on the communique, economist Bert Hofman wrote on X: “I don’t see many surprises.”

But Professor Hofman, who is with the East Asian Institute in Singapore, noted that there was a line on “sharing opportunities and common development with countries around the world”, in a section on opening up to other countries.

“This seems to be new and responding to the concern that China’s manufacturing might (be) holding back other developing countries.”

Additional reporting by Aw Cheng Wei