China fires rockets towards Taiwan in war games simulating blockade

BEIJING/TAIPEI – China fired rockets into waters off northern and southern Taiwan on Dec 30 and deployed new amphibious assault ships alongside bomber aircraft and destroyers on the second day of

its most extensive

war games

, a rehearsal for a blockade of the island.

The Eastern Theatre Command said the live-firing would go on until 6pm, affecting the sea and airspace of five locations surrounding Taiwan.

It also released a video showing what appeared to be a mobile PCH-191 rocket launcher firing into the sea from an unspecified location in China.

Naval and air force units also simulated strikes on Taiwan maritime and aerial targets as well as anti-submarine operations to the democratically governed island’s north and south, the Chinese military said.

Named “Justice Mission 2025”, the drills began 11 days after the US announced a

record US$11.1 billion

(S$14.3 billion)

arms package to Taiwan

. They are Beijing’s largest exercises to date by area and the closest yet to the island.

A senior Taiwan security official told Reuters that Taipei is watching whether this sixth major round of war games since 2022, when

then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the

island

, will see China firing missiles over Taiwan, as it did then.

Beijing also looks to be using the exercises to practise striking land-based targets such as the US-made HIMARS rocket system, the source said, a highly mobile artillery system with a range of about 300km that could hit coastal targets in southern China.

China’s PCH-191 is an advanced modular long-range rocket launcher with a strike range comparable to that of the HIMARS system. Featured in Beijing’s massive military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in September, the system can strike any point in Taiwan, according to the Chinese state media.

Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te said in a post on Facebook that front-line troops were primed to defend the island, but that Taipei did not seek to escalate the situation.

The island’s Defence Ministry confirmed live-firing drills had taken place to Taiwan’s north on the morning of Dec 30, and debris had entered its contiguous zone, defined as 24 nautical miles offshore.

Reuters was not immediately able to verify whether China also launched rockets in the other zones it had demarcated for the exercises.

China’s Eastern Theatre Command said it had fired rockets into waters both north and south of the island.

Dr Lyle Goldstein, Asia programme director at US-based think-tank Defense Priorities, said Beijing had most likely gained confidence from its tariff negotiations with the US and sensed it could exploit divisions within Taiwan’s Parliament.

“I do see an increasing level of realism in the exercises and increasing boldness,” he said.

“Buying (more weapons) may sound like a silver bullet, but it’s far from that. This is an arms race Taiwan cannot possibly win.”

Siege tactics

A Chinese blockade would be devastatingly disruptive in the event of an attack, analysts say.

Taiwan sits alongside key commercial shipping and aviation routes, with some US$2.45 trillion in trade moving through the Taiwan Strait each year and the airspace above the island a conduit between China, the world’s second-largest economy, and the fast-growing markets of East and South-east Asia.

Taiwan’s Civil Aviation Authority said that although 11 of Taipei’s 14 flight routes were affected by the drills, no international flights had been cancelled. Routes to the offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu near China’s coast are blocked, however, affecting around 6,000 passengers.

International carriers were making heavy use of two air corridors left open by China to the island’s north-east heading towards Japan, according to Mr Li Hanming, a US-based aviation analyst.

Fourteen Chinese coast guard vessels continued to sail around Taiwan’s contiguous zone on Dec 30, some of which were engaged in stand-offs with Taiwanese vessels, a Taiwan coast guard official told Reuters.

“We adopted a one-to-one parallel navigation approach, closely shadowing each other’s routes,” the official said, adding that Taiwan had also employed “wave-making and manoeuvring techniques” to force the Chinese vessels to retreat.

Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said 130 Chinese military aircraft and 22 navy and coast guard vessels had been operating around the island in the 24 hours up to 6am on Dec 30.

Chinese newspapers also highlighted the first deployment of the Type 075 amphibious assault ship.

Professor Zhang Chi of China’s National Defence University said the vessel can simultaneously launch attack helicopters, landing-craft, amphibious tanks and armoured vehicles.

China eyes 2027 readiness target

The Chinese military said it had deployed destroyers, bombers and other units to drill sea-based assaults, air defence and anti-submarine operations on Dec 30.

The drills would “test sea and air forces’ ability to coordinate for integrated containment and control”.

The Eastern Theatre Command said on Dec 29 that simulating a blockade of Taiwan’s vital deep-water port of Keelung to the island’s north and Kaohsiung – its largest port city – to Taiwan’s south was central to the drills.

Reuters reported last week that a draft Pentagon report says “China expects to be able to fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027”, the centenary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), a key symbolic milestone in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s modernisation drive.

But Mr Xi’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign within the military has raised questions about its readiness.

The Chinese leader expelled eight generals from the PLA for graft in October, and reports show revenue at China’s defence firms fell 10 per cent in 2024 despite three decades of rising military budgets.

Still, Beijing was contemplating carrying out strikes 1,500 to 2,000 nautical miles from China to take Taiwan by “brute force” if needed, the Pentagon report said. REUTERS