China-Japan ties set to remain strained after Takaichi’s landslide election win

BEIJING - For months, China has warned that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was bent on reviving militarism in her country, after the hardline conservative’s remarks on Taiwan in November angered Beijing.

In the two neighbours’ worst, ongoing bilateral spat in decades, Beijing has made diplomatic protests, announced travel curbs and signalled willingness to slow rare earth exports. 

But in a snap election on Feb 8, Ms Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a two-thirds supermajority in the House of Representatives – an indication of her popularity and an implicit rebuke to Beijing, which saw the results as an indication of a rightward shift in Japanese politics.

Ms Takaichi had sought a mandate for her policy agenda, including, on the security front, to accelerate defence spending and revise the Constitution to have the Self-Defence Forces formally recognised as a military force. 

Ms Takaichi’s landslide win – a boost to her policy agenda – has brought different responses from Japan’s close neighbours China and South Korea, with Beijing reacting less sanguinely than Seoul.

At a regular press conference on Feb 9, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said that while the election was an internal affair of Japan, it “reflected some deep-seated and structural issues”.

He said that the Japanese government should “follow the path of peaceful development rather than return to militarism”, and abide by the four political documents between China and Japan rather than renege on these commitments.

The documents establish the foundation for bilateral relations, including a 1972 joint communique that formally normalised diplomatic ties.

“If the far-right forces in Japan miscalculate and act recklessly, they will inevitably face resistance from the Japanese people and serious backlash from the international community,” said Mr Lin.

Still, striking a somewhat conciliatory tone, he added: “China’s policy on Japan has always been stable and consistent, and will not change because of one election.”

The current downturn in relations was sparked by Ms Takaichi’s Nov 7 parliamentary remarks implying that Japan could be involved militarily if there was any attempt by China to seize self-governing Taiwan, which China sees as its territory.

Ms Takaichi has not retracted those remarks, to Beijing’s chagrin.

While China-Japan relations are likely to remain strained, whether they will worsen remains an open question.

Professor Wang Dong, director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding at Peking University, was pessimistic about the outlook for bilateral ties.

He said a plausible outcome is how Ms Takaichi might perceive her victory as licence to adopt a more confrontational stance towards China.

She might also seek to further emphasise Japan’s role in the United States-Japan alliance, and her planned visit to the US, reportedly in March, could signal such a stance, he said.

Prof Wang added, however, that she might not find enough domestic or international support to persist with such a hawkish stance.

“First, the Japanese population demands she addresses domestic issues – revitalising Japan’s economy – rather than pursue an anti-China agenda,” he noted.

Most critically, “the structural disparity in power between China and Japan is increasingly tilted in Beijing’s favour”, he said.

Prof Wang added that Ms Takaichi would also find it difficult to forge anti-China alliances with Western countries, with many of them emphasising the importance of good relations with China.

Professor Stephen Nagy at the International Christian University in Tokyo assesses that Ms Takaichi’s mandate is not just on domestic issues, but also to continue to resist Beijing’s “disinformation and economic coercion campaign” against Japan.

He believes that Beijing understands that Japan is unlikely to be interested in militarism or expansionism.

At the same time, Beijing will continue to harp on Japan’s supposed drift towards militarism as it serves the purpose of political legitimation domestically.

“However, Beijing knows it needs to climb down from the escalation tree and offering to cooperate with Japan on minor issues may be the right balance to continue the myth of Japanese militarism at home while engaging with Japan when necessary,” he said.

Dr Andrea Ghiselli, a lecturer in international politics at the University of Exeter in Britain, said Beijing will not welcome Ms Takaichi’s victory as it means that she is firmly in power and unlikely to soften her stance.

But Beijing will also be looking at how US-Japan relations evolve, he said.

Beijing knows that the White House wants to make President Donald Trump’s visit to China in April happen, and Chinese policymakers could wield this as leverage, as Japan needs American backing.

“As such, it is possible that Beijing will look for a modus vivendi with Takaichi but I think it is unlikely that we will see a sudden easing of Chinese pressure,” said Dr Ghiselli.

“After all, Trump has already asked her to avoid tension with China in December.”

While Ms Takaichi’s win may not be good news for Beijing, Seoul is expected to continue building on its pragmatic, future-oriented approach towards Tokyo.

In a post on X, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung congratulated Ms Takaichi on her party’s election success on Feb 9.

Mr Lee expressed hopes that Seoul and Tokyo would continue to pursue broader and deeper cooperation.

Relations between the two countries have often been fraught by historical differences, but under Mr Lee, who took office in June 2025, ties have continued to be on the mend.

Mr Lee made Japan the destination of his first overseas trip in August 2025, the first South Korean president to do so since the normalisation of diplomatic relations in 1965.

And during Mr Lee’s visit to Ms Takaichi’s home town of Nara in mid-January, the two leaders gave a show of unity and struck up rapport in an impromptu drumming session.

Mr Lee, in his Nara speech, cited the “complex and dizzying international order of today” as renewed impetus for both Japan and South Korea to work more closely than ever.

Professor Leif-Eric Easley of Ewha Womans University in Seoul said that while Japan’s election results reshape its legislative landscape, it is unlikely to redirect LDP-led foreign policy.

“Even with a rightward political trend, Prime Minister Takaichi is committed to good relations with Seoul given shared concerns about North Korea’s weapons programmes, China’s assertiveness, and a strained international order,” he said.