China expects El Nino weather effects to peak in autumn and winter
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Temperatures across most of China are expected to be higher than usual due to El Nino.
ST PHOTO: KELVIN CHNG
BEIJING - China expects El Nino weather effects to peak in autumn and winter in 2026, before weakening in spring 2027, China’s National Climate Centre said on May 29.
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific have entered an El Nino state, and will develop into a moderate or higher intensity El Nino event in summer and autumn before peaking in autumn and winter, the Climate Centre’s deputy director, Mr Gao Rong, told reporters.
“The probability of strong El Nino events is increasing, and it is expected to weaken next spring,” he said.
El Nino in period of rapid development
El Nino is a natural weather pattern linked to a warming of the central and eastern Pacific, bringing heavier rainfall to the Pacific coast of the Americas.
In the Western Pacific, the shift can disrupt the East Asian monsoon, raising the odds of flooding in southern China and drought in other Chinese regions.
This spring and summer, El Nino is in a period of rapid development, with the atmosphere responding significantly to sea temperature changes, Mr Gao said.
This is likely to enhance precipitation south of the Yangtze River, while temperatures across most of China are expected to be higher than usual.
In May, the national average temperature was 16.9 deg C, 0.6 deg C higher than the same period in previous years.
Increased autumn rainfall in China’s southern regions as a result of El Nino also raises the risk of disruption to the harvest of late-season rice, while warmer-than-usual winter conditions could reduce available water supplies for 2027’s spring ploughing.
Southern power grid flags multiple peaks in power load
China’s Southern Power Grid said on May 29 that since the start of 2026, the entire power grid network, as well as the provinces and regions of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan have hit new peak power loads more than 20 times.
That breaks the seasonal pattern of annual peaks concentrated in June and July from 2020 to 2025, it said.
With the national peak load predicted to hit 1,600 gigawatts this summer, up 90 GW from 2025, the pressure on the grid is unprecedented, said Ms Sharon Feng, special advisor at Beijing-based consulting firm Azure International.
The El Nino cycle makes hydropower unreliable for the summer peak, she added.
“With high LNG prices, gas-fired power generation faces significant economic headwinds,” she said.
“If the wind and solar curtailment is not improved, coal-fired units will unfortunately be the reliable and cost-effective option for providing critical peaking capacity.” REUTERS
