Cost-conscious Chinese tourists look to affordable options for Golden Week holiday

BEIJING/SHANGHAI – Chinese tourists are expected to take longer trips than in 2023 during the Golden Week holiday that kicks off on Oct 1, but that will not necessarily lead to a bump in spending, travel industry experts said.

With the economy slowing and consumer confidence hovering just above historic lows, they expect many travellers over the week-long National Day break to opt for cheaper domestic or short-haul overseas destinations and take advantage of a decline in airfares.

The holiday period has traditionally produced peak numbers of Chinese travelling, especially abroad given the length of the break. In 2024, the government has forecast that the daily average number of trips handled by the nation’s transport sector will rise only 0.7 per cent year on year.

“It would be a good result if tourism spending remains flat (compared) with last year,” said Dr Liu Simin, an official with the tourism arm of Beijing-based research institute China Society for Futures Studies.

"People are more willing to travel when the economy is good, but when there is no economic growth, there is no tourism growth."

Ms Wang Xin, an office worker in Beijing, said she would drive with her family to Yangzhou, a city near Shanghai known for its lakes, gardens and fried rice.

“There is no toll fee during holidays, so we’ll drive instead of taking the train,” the 45-year-old said. “Better not to spend unnecessary money when the economy is like this. Many people are losing jobs and, at my age, if it happened to me, I wouldn’t be able to find another one.”

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, her family’s Golden Week destinations had included Singapore and the United States.

Falling airfares

Data from travel platform Flight Master shows domestic air ticket prices are expected to be 21 per cent lower than for the same period in 2023, while international economy class airfares will be 25 per cent lower than in 2023 and 7 per cent lower than in 2019.

It predicts that the international destinations of choice for outbound travellers will continue to be short-haul Asian hubs, such as Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Singapore.

Trip.com, China’s largest online travel agency, also said the top destinations were in Asia, but added that it had seen a significant shift in 2024 towards long-haul destinations like Australia, New Zealand, Britain and France with longer stays.

“Travellers will likely take advantage of lower ticket prices to travel farther, stay longer and upgrade to a higher-starred hotel,” HSBC analysts said in a note.

While last week’s large-scale stimulus may have some impact on spending, it would likely be limited, the analysts said, predicting that purchases were likely to meet but not exceed 2023 levels for the holiday period.

Some foreign airlines such as British Airways and Qantas Airways have cut or halted China flights in 2024 amid insufficient demand as well as fierce price competition from local carriers.

AirAsia Philippines in September announced that it would stop flights between Manila and China by the fourth quarter, with its chief executive quoted in local media saying China’s 30 per cent share of its traffic in 2019 had fallen to just 2 per cent in 2024.

AirAsia did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

There are, however, exceptions. Korean Air Lines said regional travel demand was improving, and announced in September the launch or re-introduction of several routes to and from China. REUTERS