China returns as S-E Asia’s preferred superpower as fears grow over Trump’s policies: ISEAS survey

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SINGAPORE – Concerns about US President Donald Trump’s foreign policies have surpassed aggression in the South China Sea as ASEAN’s biggest geopolitical fear, the results of a key survey have shown.

Respondents in the annual survey, conducted by the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, picked China instead of the United States as the region’s preferred superpower, if they had to choose between the two.

The State of South-east Asia 2026 report launched on April 7 also explicitly named Mr Trump as a source of geopolitical concern for ASEAN.

The US President’s leadership was named as the region’s top concern by the biggest proportion of respondents at 51.9 per cent, followed by global scam operations with 51.4 per cent, and aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea at 48.2 per cent.

The border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand was in fourth place at 40.5 per cent.

The report’s findings showed that a slim majority of ASEAN opinion-makers and thought leaders surveyed, or 52 per cent, would opt to align with China, compared with 48 per cent who chose the US.

The latest result reversed the trend in 2025, when the US reclaimed its pole position as the superpower that South-east Asia would pick as concerns mounted over Chinese influence in the region.

China had overtaken the US for the first time as the preferred superpower in the 2024 survey, with 50.5 per cent of respondents choosing it over the US, which received 49.5 per cent.

“What stands out in this year’s survey is that South-east Asia is uneasy about both major powers, albeit in different ways,” said Ms Joanne Lin, a senior fellow and coordinator at the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS, and one of the authors of the report.

“The broader message is that South-east Asia still wants balance, not alignment – but preserving that balance is becoming more difficult,” she added. 

ISEAS surveyed 2,008 respondents from across academia, think-tanks, research groups, businesses, civil society, the media, governments, and regional or international organisations.

The poll was conducted online from Jan 5, two days after the US attacked Venezuela and deposed its president, and closed on Feb 20, a week before the US launched military strikes on Iran.

Respondents in the 2026 survey, like those the year before, overwhelmingly rejected the idea that ASEAN neutrality is no longer viable, with 55.2 per cent favouring stronger unity to resist major power pressure and 24.1 per cent backing its non-aligned stance, underscoring a continuing preference for strategic autonomy.

“If ASEAN focuses more on its internal cohesion, it puts it in a better position to deal with both the United States and with China – not being forced to strategically take sides as far as the competition between China and the US is concerned,” said Professor Herman Kraft of the University of the Philippines at Diliman, Quezon City, who was one of the panellists invited to discuss the survey findings in a webinar organised by the institute on April 7.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on Feb 28, the day the US and Israel started coordinated air strikes against the Middle Eastern country.

The ensuing war in the Middle East has all but shut the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply, impacting South-east Asian countries such as Malaysia and Thailand through shortages and higher prices.

About 29.5 per cent of ASEAN respondents expected their country’s relations with the US to be worse off during Mr Trump’s administration, significantly more than the 14.2 per cent who were pessimistic about the relationship in 2025, with the survey that year taking place at the start of Mr Trump’s second term in office.

Before 2025, trade tensions were mainly between the US and China, “with South-east Asian economies being the periphery casualty”, the report said.

This changed after Mr Trump announced reciprocal tariffs globally, hitting South-east Asian nations including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.

The impetus to diversify trade has climbed higher on the ASEAN agenda, the ISEAS report said, with 20.7 per cent of respondents seeing the need to build alternative supply chains as the solution to enhancing the region’s resilience.

A significant proportion of respondents (38.5 per cent) indicated that the US should prioritise respecting international law over actions that might undermine the global system.

Among respondents who expressed distrust in the US, the main reason given was the fear that American economic and military power could be used to threaten their country’s specific interests and sovereignty (35 per cent). This contrasted with the 2025 survey findings, where the biggest concern was of the US being distracted by its internal affairs and therefore unable to focus on global concerns and issues.

On the other hand, China cemented its position as the dominant economic and political force in South-east Asia, even as regional countries’ anxiety shifted from geographical disputes towards perceived interference by Beijing in their domestic affairs, according to the latest findings.

The data reveals that China remains the most influential economic power for ASEAN, cited by 55.9 per cent of respondents, and the leading political-strategic power at 40 per cent.

Over the past year, Beijing has also seen a rise in strategic relevance, expanding its lead over the US as ASEAN’s preferred strategic dialogue partner, according to the report.

However, this influence comes with fears of increased friction.

For the first time, China’s interference in the domestic affairs of ASEAN member states has emerged as the primary concern for the region, chosen by 30.3 per cent of respondents.

This compares with the 28 per cent who were concerned about its “strong-arm tactics” in the South China Sea and the Mekong River, ASEAN’s top response in 2025, which is now in second place.

When asked how Beijing could improve bilateral ties, 35.1 per cent of respondents emphasised the need for China to resolve territorial and maritime disputes peacefully and in accordance with international law.

Amid the shifting dynamics between the two superpowers, Japan remains the most trusted partner in South-east Asia. With a trust rating of 65.6 per cent – albeit slightly lower than 2025’s rating of 66.8 per cent – it holds the top spot, followed by the European Union at 55.9 per cent.