Australians value China ties over those with US as Trump confidence slumps

SYDNEY – More than half of Australians now see their nation’s relationship with China as more important than its ties to the US, a new poll showed, while confidence in US President Donald Trump slumped to a record low.

The Lowy Institute’s 2026 survey of how Australians feel about the world shows an increasingly insecure population: A majority of respondents said they felt “unsafe” or “very unsafe”. There was a sharp drop in support for cultural diversity, with a slim majority saying immigration is still too high.

“Australians are wary of Donald Trump’s America,” said Michael Fullilove, executive director at the Lowy Institute. “Less than a third of Australians trust Washington to act responsibly in the world, and confidence in President Trump to do the right thing in world affairs has fallen again since last year’s poll.”

For the first time in the poll’s history, a majority of Australians – 51 per cent – said the country’s relationship with China is more important than its ties with the US – an eight-point increase from 2025.

Nearly three-quarters of Australians say the US alliance is important to Australia’s security. But the 73 per cent reading was a seven-point drop from 2025 and a 10-point drop from 2024, the sharpest sustained fall in the poll’s history, Lowy said.

Support for AUKUS – the defence pact with the US and UK under which Australia will acquire nuclear-powered submarines – held firm at 68 per cent.

Australia, an open trading nation, has benefited under the shelter of the US security umbrella while prospering from China’s industrialisation and emergence as a superpower. The decline of the rules-based order and the rise of strongman rule, coupled with a weakening domestic economy, have seen Australians turn more insular, with a surge in support for the populist One Nation party.

“The largest single movement on any societal question in the poll’s 22-year history is on cultural diversity,” said Charles Lyons-Jones, the author of the poll report. “The proportion of Australians who say that cultural diversity has been good for the country has fallen 17 points over the past two years – a shift without precedent in our polling.”

Even so, support for cultural diversity fell from very high levels, sliding to 73 per cent from 90 per cent in 2024.

Iran war

The poll was conducted from March 2 to 15, or just after the US and Israel attacked Iran and fuel prices surged. It was based on a nationally representative survey of 2,013 adult Australians and had a margin of error of around 2.2 per cent.

Australia has been buffeted in 2026 by resurgent inflation, three rapid-fire interest rate increases and the spike in fuel prices triggered by the US-Iran conflict. The country’s productivity is moribund as successive governments have ducked reform in favour of letting the China bonanza smooth any problems.

On economic performance, 59 per cent of Australians are pessimistic about the next five years, a 12-point increase from 2025 and the highest result on this question in the poll’s history, according to Lowy.

A majority of respondents – 55 per cent – said immigration to Australia is too high, a record level for the Lowy poll.

Australia recorded a surge in immigration in the post-Covid-19 period as borders were shut during the pandemic, leading to a build-up in applicants. This worsened a jump in house prices and exposed a lack of construction in recent years.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government has scaled back immigration and all levels of government are now trying to push ahead with housing construction to ease pressures for those wanting to buy or rent a home. BLOOMBERG