Aukus at ‘inflection point’ as US-based think-tank urges fresh push to ensure its success

SYDNEY – The US, UK and Australia’s trilateral partnership is at an “inflection point”, and all three must redouble efforts to ensure its success, a Washington-based think-tank said.

The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) called the grouping known as Aukus a bold “strategic declaration” by the US and its allies, but concerns about its viability have grown after a Pentagon review.

The UK and Australia said they welcomed the evaluation.

CSIS authors Abraham Denmark and Charles Edel said the review is warranted because of its geopolitical impact, but warned the US would be less capable in the Indo-Pacific if Aukus failed.

Success, they argued, would strengthen America’s defence industry, bolster key allies, deter Beijing and help stabilise the region.

“Shoring up Aukus and ensuring its success is therefore a strategic imperative,” the authors said. 

Under the Aukus agreement

signed in 2021, the US and the UK agreed to collaborate on providing Australia with a fleet of eight nuclear-powered submarines to strengthen its defences amid growing competition with China.

The US will first sell Virginia-class submarines to Australia, with deliveries expected in the early 2030s.

The UK and Australia will then design and build a new model, the SSN-Aukus, with the first set for the early 2040s.

Mr Denmark of CSIS, a former senior Aukus adviser to the US defence secretary, and Mr Edel, who served on the US State Department’s policy planning staff, urged the US and Australia to launch a “robust contingency planning process” in which military strategists would jointly plan and organise operations.

That would provide US officials with “more concrete reassurances that submarines sold to Australia would not disappear if and when needed”, they said.

Australia has so far resisted providing any commitment on how the US-supplied submarines would be deployed in case of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, referring to its policy of strategic ambiguity. BLOOMBERG