Albanese plots course to next victory as he rules supreme in Australia

SYDNEY – Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is expected to use the political capital he amassed from his spectacular election win on May 3 to try to finally fix the nation’s enduring housing shortage and to expand the transition to clean energy.

But Mr Albanese,

despite his historic win,

is not expected to suddenly adopt a new radical policy agenda or to seek more ambitious approaches to defence or foreign affairs. Instead, he has already signalled that he is looking ahead to winning a third term for the ruling Labor Party and is unlikely to make significant changes from a steady course that has so far proven successful.

With 89 per cent of the votes counted, Labor is on track to win a record 94 of 150 seats in the House of Representatives, where the party with a majority gets to form the government. The Liberal-National Coalition won just 44 seats, marking one of its worst election results, with 12 won by independents and minor political parties.

This historic victory – which will leave Mr Albanese with the same record number of seats as former Coalition prime minister John Howard in 1996 – has reset the political landscape and left the opposition in turmoil. The Liberal leader Peter Dutton and the Greens leader Adam Bandt both suffered humiliating defeats in their seats, forcing the two parties to appoint new leaders.

Meanwhile, Mr Albanese now occupies a commanding position in his party, whose massive majority leaves it in a strong position to win the next election and rule for at least a further six years.

An expert on Australian politics, Dr Frank Mols from the University of Queensland, told The Straits Times that boosting housing construction is likely to be a major focus of Labor’s second term. With the country facing a dire shortage of housing that has led to booming property and rental prices, Labor has already promised to spend A$10 billion (S$8.4 billion) to build 100,000 homes for first-home buyers.

Dr Mols said Mr Albanese might also consider expanding the national health scheme to include dental care for adults. But, like most observers, Dr Mols does not expect the Prime Minister to suddenly embark on a more adventurous agenda, noting that Labor’s strong parliamentary position might make it nervous because “it creates an odd situation where blame-shifting can’t happen”.

“I don’t think Labor will be inclined to stick its neck out,” he said. “It will be more inclined to keep trundling along the path they have chosen.”

Mr Albanese’s election promises include a modest A$5-a-week tax cut from 2026 and greater spending on healthcare and childcare.

One area where he is expected to pursue a bolder approach is on clean energy, as he seeks to expand renewable projects to try to achieve Labor’s target of having 82 per cent of power supplied by renewables by 2030.

Renewables generated 43 per cent of electricity in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator.

Notably, Mr Albanese told The Sydney Morning Herald on May 15 that the public had “completely underestimated” the extent of Labor’s clean energy reforms.

“The biggest economic transformation that’s occurring since the industrial revolution is the clean energy revolution that is transforming the way that green metals will be produced, for example,” he said.

And key to that transformation is investment in the electricity grid to switch away from ageing coal generators to a system powered by renewables, such as wind and solar, and backed-up battery storage.

The head of the energy programme at the Grattan Institute policy think-tank, Mr Tony Wood, said in the Australian Financial Review on May 12 that he believes Mr Albanese’s second-term government would likely focus on the investment needed for this grid upgrading.

“We are at a fork in the road – what gets set up now needs to drive the transformation and be seen to be successful enough to weather any future change of government,” Mr Wood wrote.

But, in other areas, particularly foreign policy, Mr Albanese is not expected to pursue major changes. He has given early indications that he does not intend to suddenly change tack on major policies, such as Australia’s plans to acquire nuclear-powered submarines as part of the Aukus pact with the United States and Britain.

Unveiling his new Cabinet on May 12, Mr Albanese retained his senior leadership team, including Dr Jim Chalmers as Treasurer, Ms Penny Wong as Foreign Minister and Mr Richard Marles as Defence Minister. They have stood with Mr Albanese in resisting calls to reconsider the costly nuclear-submarine project.

An expert on Australian politics, Dr Jill Sheppard, told ST the new Cabinet suggested Mr Albanese had no plans for a “big-ticket policy reform” or to suddenly confront US President Donald Trump over his refusal to exempt Australia from tariffs. Instead, Mr Albanese signalled he will quietly plead Australia’s case with Mr Trump but will not impose retaliatory measures.

“If anyone is looking for a shift on Aukus or tariff negotiations, it doesn’t seem likely in this term,” Dr Sheppard said.

Despite Mr Albanese’s massive victory making international headlines, Dr Sheppard said he is unlikely to suddenly take a bigger role on the world stage. This is because Mr Albanese was not particularly comfortable with foreign policy, she said, and because he will want to keep a close watch on Labor Party rivals to ensure he does not become the fifth Australian leader since 2010 to be ousted by their party.

“I don’t think Albanese is instinctively comfortable with foreign relations,” she said. “He gives a lot of autonomy and responsibility to Penny Wong as Foreign Minister.”

She added: “The more time he spends overseas, the more time he gives to his colleagues to plot against him.”

For now, opposition parties are in disarray

The Liberal Party on May 13 elected a new leader, Ms Sussan Ley, the first woman leader in the party’s history. Her appointment raised hopes that the party could reverse its unpopularity among women voters and its lack of women MPs.

But Ms Ley, 63, faces the monumental challenge of trying to rebuild a broken party while uniting its moderate and conservative factions that have staunchly different beliefs on crucial issues, particularly climate change. She must also retain the support of the Liberal Party’s junior Coalition partner, the Nationals, a rural-based party that tends to be sceptical about climate action.

Signalling that she will try to steer a middle line between these various factions, she told reporters on May 13: “We need to reduce emissions in this country. We also know that, if we don’t do energy policy well, we can crash the energy grid. We can cripple Australian manufacturing.”

Labor still needs to work with minor parties in the Senate. But it has improved its position, and ruling parties rarely have a majority in the Upper House.

Labor is expected to hold up to 30 seats in the 76-seat chamber, up from 24. It will be able to pass laws simply by relying on the Greens, which are due to hold 11 seats, or could work with the Liberal-National Coalition, which is due to hold up to 27, down from 30. Other seats will be held by independents and minor parties.

Dr Mols said Mr Albanese’s strong position may embolden him to try to adopt an uncompromising approach to policies he cares about, such as housing.

Indeed, Mr Albanese told reporters soon after the election: “I say this message to the Senate and members of the House of Representatives: We have a clear mandate to build more housing. The key is supply.”

Despite expectations that Mr Albanese will not convert his political capital into overly ambitious reforms, the Prime Minister has often reminded political observers that he has been “underestimated” throughout his political career and his life. On the day before the election, he was asked by a reporter if he was planning for a third term and said, simply: “Yes.”

After his dramatic victory, he may yet prove that he has reserves of boldness that have so far been overlooked.