Albanese’s China trip reflects new realities shaping ties with China and US

SYDNEY/BEIJING – Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has faced intense pressure in recent months to meet US President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs and the fate of a deal to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines.

Though he has yet to secure a meeting with President Trump, Mr Albanese jetted to China this week and

met Chinese President Xi Jinping

on July 15, in what is the Australian leader’s longest single-country visit since taking office in 2022.

The six-day trip to China – from July 12 to 18 – does not indicate that he has suddenly decided to pursue closer relations with Australia’s largest trading partner at the expense of ties with the US, Australia’s closest security ally.

Indeed, he did not shy away from discussing differences during his meeting with Mr Xi. Mr Albanese said he raised concerns about

China’s lack of notice before holding live-fire drills

off the Australian coast in February, and about the fate of

Chinese-Australian Yang Hengjun

, a pro-democracy writer detained in China on espionage charges.

But Mr Albanese’s trip reflects two new realities shaping his approach to navigating ties with the US and China.

First, his stunning re-election in May with an

increased parliamentary majority for the ruling Labor Party

has boosted his political stature – a change visible in his relaxed manner during his waterfront stroll in Shanghai this week and his meetings with Chinese officials. This confidence – and Labor’s strong position in the polls – has allowed him to trust his political instincts and ignore criticism from the opposition, which accused him ahead of the trip of prioritising China over the US.

The other reality is that Mr Albanese has helped to stabilise ties with China, which has lifted the trade sanctions imposed following tensions over issues such as Canberra’s calls for an inquiry into the origins of Covid-19.

Though he remains committed to the US alliance and to

acquiring nuclear-powered submarines as part of the Aukus pact

with Washington and London, he has changed the tone of the relationship with Beijing and tried to demonstrate, as he said on July 15, that he supports “seeking common ground while sharing differences”.

Professor James Laurenceson, director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney, told The Straits Times that Mr Albanese was “not running away from the relationship”.

“His visit shows that this is an important relationship and that the Prime Minister will give it the attention it deserves,” he said. 

Mr Albanese has deliberately focused his trip on boosting trade and investment. His itinerary included visits to Shanghai and Chengdu, and he has been accompanied by a large business delegation including mining bosses such as Ms Geraldine Slattery from BHP and Mr Andrew Forrest from Fortescue.

Clearly, Mr Albanese has tried to keep disagreements contained and focused on potential areas of cooperation, including decarbonisation projects such as producing green steel.

Professor Chen Hong of the East China Normal University in Shanghai said Australia has displayed an increasingly cautious and pragmatic approach to US-China relations.

“China, as its largest trading partner, is crucial to Australia’s economy, but its alliance with the United States leaves it caught between a rock and a hard place on strategic issues,” he wrote in a commentary for Chinese news website Guancha on July 15.

Australia has promoted economic and trade exchanges with China but maintained a high degree of caution in its security policies, he said.

Prof Chen cited the example of how Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers, on the eve of Mr Albanese’s China visit, said Canberra would not relax rules on foreign investment in critical infrastructure, and reiterated that it remains committed to pushing to wrest control of Darwin Port from the current operator, Chinese-owned Landbridge Group.

Prof Laurenceson said he did not expect major policy announcements from the trip because the aim was to “keep the politics stable”.

“The Australia-China relationship is so much more than the relationship between Beijing and Canberra,” he said. “As long as the politics are stable, then the business community can get on with the trade opportunities, and the people-to-people ties can continue to grow.”

But Mr Albanese’s confidence in China this week may reflect another reality – that managing ties with China currently poses fewer political stumbling blocks than doing so with the current Trump administration.

In China, Mr Albanese has little to lose. He can stick to the standard lines on the benefits and limits of the relationship and demonstrate that he has been willing to discuss thorny topics with Chinese leaders.

But handling US ties at present may prove more difficult. He flew to Canada in June to try to finally meet Mr Trump on the sidelines of a Group of Seven summit, but the latter

cancelled the meeting and flew back to the US

to deal with the Israel-Iran war.

In any case, the outcome of a meeting with the notoriously unpredictable US President could prove damaging. During calls with Mr Trump, Mr Albanese has been unable to secure a reprieve for Australia from US tariffs.

And it is unclear

whether Mr Trump will stand by US commitments to the Aukus deal

. The Pentagon is reviewing the deal, which could lead to pressure on Canberra to increase defence spending – or see Washington impose even tougher conditions.

On the eve of Mr Albanese’s trip to China, a report in The Financial Times said that US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby had been pushing Australia and Japan to commit to supporting the US in a potential war with China over Taiwan, the self-governing territory claimed by Beijing.

But Mr Albanese told reporters in Shanghai that he would not adopt such a commitment, saying Australia supports the status quo in Taiwan and will “not support any unilateral action there”.

The Australian Prime Minister may not walk away from his trip to China with major new gains. But he will have helped to further improve ties and pave the way for greater trade, tourism and investment.

Speaking to reporters in Beijing, he observed: “If you don’t have communication, you can have misadventure and misinterpretation as well.”

But this approach applies to all of Australia’s partners, including the US.

To avoid any misadventure or misinterpretation with Washington, he will no doubt follow up his China visit with a renewed push for a meeting with Mr Trump.