Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has won an unprecedented third term in office as voters ignored China’s warnings against electing presidential candidate Lai Ching-te. In the island’s first-past-the-post system, Mr Lai prevailed with 40 per cent of the vote. Mr Hou Yu-ih from the Kuomintang, the largest opposition party, had 33.5 per cent, and Mr Ko Wen-je from the smaller Taiwan People’s Party attracted 26.5 per cent. Reflecting both anti-incumbency sentiments towards the DPP, and the effect of Beijing’s warnings that Taiwanese “must make the right choice”, Mr Lai’s victory was 17 percentage points lower than that clinched by his predecessor, Ms Tsai Ing-wen, in 2020. The DPP also lost its majority in Parliament.

Now that the Taiwanese have spoken, and in some ways asserted their identity, what next? The big question is whether Beijing will punish the Taiwanese for ignoring its warnings. Some threatening military manoeuvres and economic penalties are possibly in the offing. However, this instinct to punish is likely to be tempered by the imperative to preserve the gains of the fence-mending summit in November between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his American counterpart Joe Biden. Restraint also makes sense for China to avoid making itself even more of a target for candidates in a bitterly contested United States presidential election race. Meanwhile, the Pacific island Nauru’s decision to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favour of China must come as a balm for its sense of injury from the poll results.