TAIPEI – In a dramatic anti-climax, Taiwan’s two main opposition parties failed to agree on who would lead a joint presidential ticket, which they had been expected to announce on the morning of Nov 18.

A five-hour meeting the night before between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the smaller Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), which stretched till 2am, came to naught when they could not agree on the margin of error for opinion polls.

They had earlier agreed to a review of existing opinion surveys by pollsters to determine which party’s candidate would run for president – with the other as his running mate – and they now have less than a week to do so by the Nov 24 deadline to register their candidacy.

Analysts believe that a team-up of the two parties would be the only way for the opposition – all seen as more mainland-China-friendly – to present a formidable challenge to the ruling independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

At a press conference on Nov 18, the TPP’s candidate, Dr Ko Wen-je, who is also his party’s founder and chairman, said he could not be expected to “surrender” to the KMT on the polls issue. 

He had previously agreed that even if he came out ahead of the KMT’s Mr Hou Yu-ih in the polling survey results but his lead was within the margin of error, he would count that as a win for his rival.

Dr Ko said he had agreed to a margin of error of 3 percentage points, and claimed that the KMT was now asking for a margin of error of 6 percentage points. 

“If the KMT insists we agree to a margin of error of more than 6 per cent, Hou might win this primary, but he wouldn’t win the election,” he told reporters. 

At a separate media conference held immediately after, KMT chairman Eric Chu refuted Dr Ko’s claims and said the opinion polls should be reviewed according to their statistical margin of error, which is dependent on the number of samples. 

Still, hopes for a potential unity ticket were not completely quashed.

Dr Ko said that “anything is possible” in the days before the registration deadline.

“This election is full of surprises,” he acknowledged, adding that he hopes to continue consultations with the KMT. 

Meanwhile, Mr Chu said that as long as one thinks of the big picture, “any problem can be resolved”. 

“If we only have ourselves in our hearts, then all sorts of problems will be created,” he added, noting that a joint bid was “necessary” for the Taiwanese people. 

For months, current Taiwan Vice-President William Lai Ching-te has maintained a commanding lead in opinion polls, with various polls pegging support levels for the DPP candidate at between 30 per cent and 38 per cent. 

Mr Hou, who is New Taipei mayor, and Dr Ko, a former Taipei mayor, are neck and neck in second place, with each having around 20 per cent of support. 

Meanwhile, Mr Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of Apple supplier Foxconn, trails in fourth place with about 8 per cent of support. He plans to run as an independent candidate.

Associate Professor Chen Shih-min, who teaches political science at National Taiwan University, described the drawn-out talks of a potential joint ticket as a “never-ending soap opera”. 

“I think voters are also getting quite frustrated because the bickering between both sides has been going on for so long,” he told The Sunday Times. 

“Work together or don’t work together – these decisions are affecting how their supporters see them every day.” 

When Dr Ko first agreed to a joint campaign, his base of mostly younger supporters was riled.

They took to social media to vent about how they felt betrayed. 

The TPP promotes itself as an unconventional third force in a landscape long dominated by the island’s two main political parties, the DPP and KMT. 

“His supporters are median voters who cannot accept the possibility of their hero working together with the KMT, let alone play second fiddle to that party,” Prof Chen said.

The electoral politics expert added that he believes it would be more beneficial to the TPP in the long term if Dr Ko ran on his own ticket.

“He won’t win the election but he can drum up more support for his party over the next four years. He’s not very old yet, so he can definitely run again in the next round, when he’ll certainly have a higher chance,” Prof Chen said of the 64-year-old candidate.

As for the KMT, the potential of a much more established party being subordinate to a smaller one would be seen as “embarrassing” for its long-time supporters, he added.

While it remains to be seen if the two sides can settle on a joint bid in time, Dr Ko appears to have learnt a lesson. 

At Nov 18’s press conference, he said he would go into all future negotiations with the KMT as part of a team, instead of on his own, like he did when he first agreed to form a combined ticket on Nov 15.

“It’s too easy for me to say, ‘Okay, okay, okay’ – that’s my mantra. That’s how I was fooled,” Dr Ko said to chuckles from the media.